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Southampton vs. Fulham Betting Odds, Preview, Prediction: Value on Total in Premier League Showdown (Saturday, May 15)

Southampton vs. Fulham Betting Odds, Preview, Prediction: Value on Total in Premier League Showdown (Saturday, May 15) article feature image

Adam Davy/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Scott Parker (left) and Ivan Cavaleiro.

  • Teams without much to play for meet Saturday when Southampton hosts Fulham in Premier League action.
  • The Saints are clear of relegation in the bottom half of the table, while the Cottagers have already been relegated and sit in 18th place.
  • BJ Cunningham delivers his analysis of the matchup below, explaining where he sees betting value in this contest.

Southampton vs. Fulham Odds

Southampton Odds +100
Fulham Odds +280
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-105 / -120)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

Southampton look to make it two wins in a row Saturday when they host already relegated Fulham.

It’s been a rough second half of the Premier League season for the Saints, but they were able to secure all three points against Crystal Palace on Tuesday. Southampton have already secured safety for next season, so they will not have much to play for other than pride in this one.

Fulham’s return to the Premier League this season was far from successful, as a 2-0 loss to Burnley on Monday sealed their return to the Championship. This is Fulham’s second stint in the Premier League where they’ve been relegated after only one season. With relegation already official, you have to wonder where the motivation and confidence level is for Cottagers heading into Saturday’s match.

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Southampton: Saints Eye Strong March Down the Stretch

For the Saints, regression over the second half of the season has come in a massive way. Ever since their 1-0 upset win over Liverpool in early January, Southampton have picked up only 11 of a possible 54 points, which is the lowest point total of anybody in the Premier League over that time span. They’ve been outscored 43-18 and have only been able to average 1.23 xGF per match, so a lot of their issues have come in front of net. 

A lot of that has to do with the 4-4-2 formation they utilize, one of the more defensive setups in soccer. Manager Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side likes to press high up the field and has morphed at times into a 4-2-2-2 formation. They haven’t been able to create much out of that formation, averaging 1.06 xG per 90 minutes, which isn’t surprising given how defensive the formation is.

The Southampton high press may run into some trouble when they face Fulham’s 4-2-3-1 formation. The reason being if your formation presses high and morphs into a 4-2-2-2, that is going to leave space out for the Cottagers’ wide midfielder and full backs to push up the field and exploit the Saints on the outside.

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Fulham: Cottagers Ending the Season on Downward Spiral

Fulham started off the season in poor form and it has only gotten worse for Scott Parker’s side over the past two months. Since the beginning of March, Fulham has secured only four of a possible 27 points and have been outscored 15-3.

The problem that has plagued Fulham all season is their performance in front of goal. The Cottagers are averaging only 1.09 xG per match and have only created 0.96 xG over their past nine matches. They struggled to create chances in a 0-0 draw with Southampton earlier in the season, creating only 0.83 xG in the match.

With relegation already official, you have to question where the motivation is for Fulham. Many players will either be moving on or playing in the second division next season, so I have a hard time seeing how the Cottagers get up for a meaningless match.

Betting Analysis & Pick

With two struggling offenses, I think this is going to be a very low scoring match, especially since the motivation level is going to be low for both sides since they have nothing to play for.

Therefore, I am going to back Under 2.5 goals at -120.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-120)

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