Saturday Soccer Expert Picks: Best Bets For Hoffenheim vs. Bayern Munich & Manchester City vs. Brighton (Oct. 22)

Saturday Soccer Expert Picks: Best Bets For Hoffenheim vs. Bayern Munich & Manchester City vs. Brighton (Oct. 22) article feature image

Picture Alliance/Getty. Pictured: Thomas Muller.

Saturday is for college football, we know that, but with a full slate of soccer odds released and no American football kick off until 12 p.m. ET, why not dive into the other version of football for a few wagers as we approach college football kickoff.

Below, Nick Hennion and BJ Cunningham and have identified their top bets to make across the global soccer world.

Read on to see how our experts are taking advantage of the Saturday soccer odds with their best bets on Hoffenheim vs. Bayern Munich and Manchester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion.

Our 2 Global Saturday Best Bets

Hoffenheim vs. Bayern Munich

Hoffenheim Odds+425
Bayern Munich Odds+370
Over/Under2.5 (-120 / +100)
Time9:30 a.m. ET
How To WatchESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Hennion: Hoffenheim know no other game script at home than a high-event goal-fest.

In 10 total fixtures this season, Hoffenheim are already averaging 3.07 expected goals (xG) on target before playing Bayern Munich. Just at home, though, Hoffenheim has seen an average of 3.45 xG on target per 90 minutes.

The five home opponents? Bochum, Augsburg, Mainz, Freiburg and Werder Bremen. Given Hoffenheim is averaging 1.1 xGOT per 90 and 1.2 big scoring chances per 90, so I worry what will happen against a Bayern attack creating 2.66 xGOT per 90 minutes in five road fixtures.

But, this is also a Bayern defense that has looked shaky at times away from home. Entering this match, manager Julian Nagelsmann’s side has conceded 1.04 xGOT per 90 minutes and has kept only one clean sheet.

Finally, although there were only two goals in this exact fixture last season, the sides combined for 4.2 xGOT and 11 big scoring chances, per

Pick: Over 3.5 (-120)

Manchester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion

Man City Odds-550
Brighton Odds+600
Over/Under3.5 (+114 / -140)
Day | Time10 a.m. ET
How To WatchPeacock
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Brighton have played two big six sides under Roberto De Zerbi. Those are a 3-3 draw with Liverpool, where Brighton did only allow 1.6 xG and a 1-0 defeat against Tottenham where they only allowed Spurs to create 0.6 xG.

Brighton are also still the possession-based team we saw under Graham Potter because in the Liverpool match they were able to hold 45% possession, then 60% against Tottenham and over 70% against Brentford and Nottingham Forest.

De Zerbi loves to do what Pep is starting to do more of this season, which is playing out from the back and baiting teams into pressing high and then quickly moving the ball via passing triangles and overloads between the lines to eventually be able to play a ball in out wide or in behind the defense.

So, I am not so sure either side is going to commit themselves too much in trying to counter-press and get the ball back.

This is a Brighton defense that doesn’t allow a lot of high quality chances, as they are third in big scoring chances allowed.

Manchester City also has a road trip with Borrusia Dortmund on deck in the Champions League, which can ultimately decide the group for them, making this a bit of a lookahead spot.

I only have 2.74 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on Under 3.5 goals at -140.

Pick:Under 3.5 (-140)

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