FC Schalke vs. Augsburg Bundesliga Betting Odds and Pick: Does the Over/Under Have Value? (Sunday, May 24)

FC Schalke vs. Augsburg Bundesliga Betting Odds and Pick: Does the Over/Under Have Value? (Sunday, May 24) article feature image

Sebastian Widmann/Bongarts/Getty Images. Pictured: Philipp Max

Bundesliga Odds: Augsburg at FC Schalke

Schalke +104
Augsburg +255
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-118/-106)
Time Sunday, 7:30 a.m. ET

Sunday’s three-game Bundesliga slate begins early with a 7:30 a.m. ET match between FC Schalke and Augsburg. Schalke, who still have an outside shot at a Europa League spot, are 10 points ahead of their foes in the table but according to their expected goals differential per 90, these two teams are on relatively even terms.

Expected goals is an advanced statistic gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Schalke did not give a good account of themselves against their rivals, Borussia Dortmund, last weekend but Die Knappen were a bit unfortunate, giving up four goals on 1.7 xG.

Finding goals has been a struggle all season for Schalke, who have 33 goals on 29.54 xG in 26 matches, but they should have some opportunities against Augsburg, who grade out as one of the worst defensive sides in Germany’s top division.

Augsburg has allowed 54 goals this season and while their expected goals suggest they’ve been a little unlucky to be that porous, their 35.99 xGA still ranks in the bottom-third of the Bundesliga.

Augsburg also sports the third-lowest clean sheet percentage (shutout) in the Bundesliga at 15%, and 65% of their matches this season have seen both teams score.

Schalke Augsburg
Goals For 33 (14th) 37 (8th)
Goals Against 40 (8th) 54 (16th)
Expected Goals For 29.54 (15th) 35.99 (10th)
Expected Goals Against 40.32 (9th) 46.56 (13th)

The low total makes sense since neither of these two attacks pack much punch, but I think the defensive deficiencies for both sides give some value to the Over at 2.5 goals. Augsburg’s defense is clearly the weaker bunch in this fixture, but Schalke’s backline has been the definition of average in 2019-20.

A high-scoring affair may not be in the cards, but the numbers suggest that this match could be more open than we think. While Schalke matches feature just 2.81 goals on average this season (16th), Augsburg is at the other end of the table with an average of 3.5 total goals per match, which is the fourth-highest mark in the Bundesliga.

I don’t think that three goals is too much to ask for out of these sides in a match that shouldn’t feature much pressure — at least from a standings point of view.

If you’re looking to back a team on the moneyline, I’d say it’s Augsburg or pass at this number. There’s really not all that much between these two teams from a statistical perspective, so a +255 payout on the underdogs is not a bad bet at all.

The Bet: Over 2.5 (-118); Augsburg +255

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