AS Roma. Pictured: Alessandro Florenzi
With each of Europe’s top five leagues now back underway, I’ve gone back on the lookout for the statistical trends that might be worth considering in order to find the best soccer odds this coming weekend, and my search has taken me across the continent once more.
I’ve found value in five matches across Germany, Spain, France and Italy over the course of the coming weekend.
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AC Milan vs Roma Betting Odds
- Roma moneyline: +197
- AC Milan moneyline: +149
- Draw: +241
- Over/Under: 3 (+141/-156)
- Kickoff: Friday, 2:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN+
It’s only week three in Serie A, but the schedule has already thrown up some huge clashes and it’s another Milan vs Rome match up on Friday as AC host Roma.
There’s little to separate the two teams in the odds, with home advantage just swinging things in the hosts’ favor, but I’m not convinced Gennaro Gattuso’s side should be considered favorites, no matter how slender the margin.
Milan may have won the last meeting between the two in February, but that was in the capital and ended a run of four consecutive defeats against this weekend’s visitors to San Siro.
Roma have come away with all the points on their last three trips to the historic stadium, and with one extra game under their belt, and a more settled side to boot, I’m backing another away win here.
Bet: Roma ML +197
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Wolfsburg Betting Odds
- Wolfsburg: +450
- Bayer Leverkusen: -156
- Draw: +327
- Over/Under: 3 (-102/-113)
- Kickoff: Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET
- Channel: FS1
The Bundesliga is always a good bet for a goalfest, but few encounters have offered quite the entertainment that Leverkusen and Wolfsburg have for a matter of decades.
The meetings between the two sides are remarkably free scoring at both ends of the pitch, with 26 of the last 30 (87%!) seeing both teams score.
Of said meetings just three (10%) have seen under 2.5 goals scored so if it’s goals you’re after this weekend, the BayArena is the place to be.
You can come close to doubling your money on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals in the match, which is a free hit of you ask me!
Bet: Both Teams to Score -161 and Over 2.5 goals -161
Levante vs. Valencia Betting Odds
- Valencia: +111
- Levante: +262
- Draw: +258
- Over/Under: -2.5 (-118/+103)
- Kickoff: 12 p.m. ET
- Channel: beIN Sports Connect
The Valencian derby gets Sunday’s action underway in La Liga and an upset could be on the cards given Levante’s home advantage.
Regardless of that fact, Paco Lopez’s side are considerable underdogs despite the fact that the support of the home crowd has proven pivotal in recent meetings between the sides.
In the last 10 encounters there hasn’t been a single away win for either side, with Levante picking up 13 points from the last 15 available against their neighbors at the Estadi Ciutat de València.
Valencia may have earned an impressive point at Atletico in their opening match but lost on their first away day at Espanyol last time out and haven’t hit their stride, scoring just once.
Their hosts have scored four times by comparison in their two matches, including an excellent 3-0 win at Real Betis, and may be worth a double chance bet this weekend.
Bet: Levante +0.5 -126
Schalke vs. Hertha Berlin Betting Odds
- Hertha Berlin moneyline: +426
- Schalke moneyline: -125
- Draw: +249
- Over/Under: 2 (-142/+127)
- Kickoff: Sunday, 12 p.m. ET
- Channel: FS1
Following on from Saturday’s aforementioned fixture in German’s top-flight, Sunday’s meeting between Schalke and Hertha brings to light another astonishing but very different pattern.
Indeed, rather than goals flowing at both ends, when these sides meet in Gelsenkirchen there tends to be only one goalkeeper picking the ball out from the net, and it’s the visiting one.
In a run stretching all the way back to 2004, Hertha Berlin have made the trip to face Schalke 11 times but scored just a solitary goal across said matches.
In fact Schalke have kept 13 clean sheets in their last 15 home games in this fixture, and only Stuttgart conceded fewer goals as hosts in the Bundesliga last season.
Bet: Hertha Berlin Under 0.5 goals +106
Monaco vs. Marseille Betting Odds
- Marseille moneyline: +160
- Monaco moneyline: +164
- Draw: +277
- Over/Under: 3 (+111/-126)
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Channel: beIN Sports
Finishing my tips with the late kick-off in France on Sunday, they’ve saved the best until last in Ligue 1.
Both Monaco and Marseille have endured difficult starts to the season, with four points apiece from three games, and this fixture certainly won’t be any easier for either team.
The odds, however, have the visitors as the very marginal favorite, which is curious to say the least. Monaco, after all, haven’t lost in seven meetings between these sides, and their record at home in this fixture has been superb of late, winning five in a row.
The last encounter between the two at the Stade Louis II ended in a 6-1 rout to the home side, and over that aforementioned five match winning run they have scored 15 times and conceded just twice.
In fact, Monaco have found Marseille’s defense easy to breach for some time now, scoring at least twice in their last seven meetings and a repeat of that feat is the angle I would look to over the outright win bet, keeping in mind the away side’s own enviable firepower.
Bet: Monaco Team Total over 1.5 +106
All odds current as of 5 p.m. ET on 8/29.