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English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Aston Villa vs. Leicester City (Sunday, Feb. 21)

English Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Aston Villa vs. Leicester City (Sunday, Feb. 21) article feature image

Neil Hall/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Aston Villa star Jack Grealish.

  • Aston Villa welcomes powerful Leicester City to Villa Park for Sunday's Premier League showdown.
  • The Foxes enter this crucial fixture off their huge win against Liverpool last time out.
  • Anthony Dabbundo explains why he likes the host to grab all three points below.

Aston Villa vs. Leicester City Odds

Aston Villa Odds +220
Leicester City Odds +118
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-139/+112) 
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Leicester City enters Sunday’s Premier League match against Aston Villa fresh off a stunning 3-1 upset of Liverpool last time out.

Now, the Foxes journey to Villa Park for a battle between two overachieving sides in England’s top flight.

The Villans, who are in eighth place on the table with a game in hand, face the third-place Foxes, who are actually tied on points with second-place Manchester United entering the weekend fixtures.

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Aston Villa

The Villans keep going against the market consensus and getting results.

It wasn’t long ago Aston Villa was even money in a match against struggling West Bromwich Albion. It’s been consistently flying under the radar because of its relegation form last season and having played fewer games than the rest of the league.

Aston Villa ranks seventh-best in xG difference per 90 and features one of the league’s best attacking players in Jack Grealish. The standout makes the club dangerous on the counterattack, where Leicester City has been vulnerable in past games.

The Villans will have no issue shutting this game down and looking to go after the Foxes. Aston Villa’s defense has been excellent at preventing big scoring chances, plus goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez ranks second in post-shot xG over performance in goal.

Martinez, who has been excellent at shot stopping, is a major reason the Villans are eighth in the standings. They could make a legitimate charge for Europa League football if they get results in their two games in hand against Everton and Tottenham Hotspur.

Leicester City

The Foxes played 15 incredible minutes against Liverpool last Sunday and earned a stunning come-from-behind win. However, that shouldn’t take away from the fact the Reds dominated the opening 70 minutes of the match and easily could have been two or three goals ahead.

Leicester City had to make a midweek trip to Czechoslovakia to play 90 minutes against Slavia Prague, while Aston Villa had the week off.

The Foxes have been an under team since they had an absurd number of penalties early in the season. Eight of Leicester City’s last 12 games have gone under the total.

The only two fixtures that went over the total were games with Leeds United and Liverpool, which played right into the Foxes’ preferred style.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

The Foxes don’t have a ton of squad depth and might be caught looking ahead to Thursday’s second leg with Slavia Prague.

From a numbers perspective, the table is lying about the overall performances of these two teams. Leicester City’s season-long xG differential per 90 minutes is +0.31; Aston Villa is sitting at +0.26 per 90 minutes. Despite this, the Foxes are in third place and the Villans five spots behind them.

Leicester City is the deserved favorite, but the game should be lined closer than it is at the moment.

The Foxes are at their best when they’re able to get in behind, and Aston Villa is a defense that forces teams to build through the midfield. The Villans don’t get beat over the top often and will look to counterattack against a side that likes to do that to others.

This should be a cagey affair between two underrated defenses, with both teams having a chance to grab the winner. 

Picks: Aston Villa — Draw No Bet (+120 or better) | Total Under 2.75 Goals (-110)

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