Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester United (Sunday, April 11)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester United (Sunday, April 11) article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Peters/Manchester United via Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Wan-Bissaka

  • Manchester United is the road favorite in the betting odds for Sunday's Premier League showdown against Tottenham Hotspur.
  • Spurs have struggled to compete against better opposition this season, and now faces the second-place Red Devils.
  • Anthony Dabbundo thinks there's betting value on that situation to continue and explains why below.

Spurs vs. Manchester United Odds

Spurs Odds +195
Manchester United Odds +145
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -105)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
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Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

Two of the Premier League’s Big Six will face off on Sunday as Manchester United travels to take on Tottenham Hotspur at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Spurs won the reverse fixture, 6-1, in one of the more stunning results of the PL season in October, but United has been in much better form since then and vaulted themselves up to second place in the table.

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Spurs

Tottenham’s defensive performance against Newcastle was one of its worst of the season. Spurs tried to press and close down the ball, but their pressure was completely ineffective and passed right through. Spurs had plenty of chances of their own, including Harry Kane’s brace. Newcastle generated 3.3 xG per Understat and had six big scoring chances per Infogol.

When you combine the off-the-field controversy involving the players and manager José Mourinho’s future at the club with Spurs’ defensive regression, there are very troubling signs ahead for Tottenham.

There’s plenty of individual talent in attack for Spurs with Kane and Heung-min Son, but their center backs have been exposed in space repeatedly this season, and Manchester United is well equipped to take advantage of this.

In the second half of the season, Spurs lost to Brighton, Chelsea, Man City, West Ham, Arsenal and Liverpool. Every team that’s decent-to-good in the league has controlled the game and the chances against Tottenham. While Spurs had some great performances against Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Burnley, they haven’t been able to compete with the better teams in the league.

Manchester United

While United’s attack remains overrated and has run unsustainably hot with their shooting, the Red Devils defense has significantly improved since the beginning of the season. Aaron Wan-Bissaka is an elite defensive right back and should be able to contain Son and Sergio Regúilon on the left wing.

Since February began, United’s defense has allowed the fourth-fewest expected goals per 90 in the league, behind only Chelsea, Man City and Brighton. They’ve been conceding less defensively and doing just enough to get some positive shooting variance and squeak out results.

Manchester United dealt with a bit of an injury crisis prior to the international break too, but the Red Devils are getting healthy now. Paul Pogba, Luke Shaw, Edinson Cavani and Marcus Rashford are all expected to be available for this game on Sunday. United struggles with its lacking depth when starters are out, but that will not be an issue against Spurs on Sunday.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I have concerns about the cohesion within the Tottenham squad, and that’s a potential recipe for disaster for soccer teams. My projections make Manchester United +115 in this match away from home, so I will take them on the draw no bet line at -130 or better.

United is the fourth best team in the league per my projections and is +0.40 xG difference per 90, while Spurs are eighth in xG difference and eighth in my ratings. The better team should be able to avoid

Pick: Manchester United — Draw No Bet (-130 or better)

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