Sunderland AFC (9-6-9) and Arsenal (16-3-5) will face off today at 10:00 a.m. EST at Emirates Stadium in London, England.
Arsenal is favored at a -450 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-138o / +110u) goals.
Let's get into our Sunderland vs. Arsenal prediction.
Sunderland vs. Arsenal Prediction
Pick: Arsenal -1.75 Asian Handicap
Our Sunderland vs. Arsenal best bet is on the Gunners to win by a two or three-goal margin.
Sunderland vs. Arsenal Odds
| Sunderland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 2.5 -138o / 110u | +1400 |
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -135 | 2.5 -138o / 110u | -450 |
Sunderland vs. Arsenal Picks
Pick: Arsenal -1.75 Asian Handicap (+100)
Arsenal enters this contest after a significant test of character. The team’s first home defeat of the season against Manchester United put them under pressure, but the Gunners responded emphatically.
Their subsequent 4-0 road victory over Leeds showcased the squad's formidable attack and mental toughness.
This offensive power is no fluke; Mikel Arteta's team ranks second in the league with an average of 1.9 goals per match and holds the fourth-highest expected goals (xG) total at 42.7.
This presents a serious problem for Sunderland, a team that struggles mightily away from home.
The Black Cats average just 0.83 points per game on the road, a stark contrast to their form at their own stadium. Their attack vanishes on the road, with just six goals in 12 away matches and a failure to score in seven of those.
While Sunderland boasts the league's third-best defense on paper, that record is misleading away from home. They have lost by a two-goal margin in five away games and concede almost twice as many goals on the road as at home.
The reverse fixture ended in a 2-2 draw, a result where Sunderland dramatically overperformed its 0.43 xG.
Arsenal will look for revenge and a dominant performance to correct that statistical anomaly at the Emirates.
Sunderland vs. Arsenal Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Sunderland | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | 16.8% | 76.5% |
Projected Total Goals
| Sunderland | Total Goals | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 0.46 | 2.58 | 2.12 |
Sunderland vs. Arsenal Betting Analysis
For Arsenal, every match is crucial as the club chases a long-awaited Premier League title. The Gunners cannot afford to drop points, especially at home against a newly promoted team.
Sunderland has certainly surpassed expectations this season and has avoided a relegation battle, but the team's lackluster away form is a major red flag against a top-tier opponent.
Defense has been a cornerstone of its success, with only 26 goals conceded. However, a deeper look at the analytics suggests some good fortune. The team's expected goals against (xGA) indicates opponents should have scored seven more goals.
That defensive regression is likely to occur against an elite offensive unit like Arsenal. The head-to-head history heavily favors the home side. Arsenal is undefeated in its last 19 encounters with Sunderland.
The last time the two teams met, the match ended in a surprising 2-2 draw at the Stadium of Light. That result, where Arsenal generated 1.92 xG, should provide extra motivation for the Gunners to secure a comprehensive victory this time around.
Given Arsenal’s offensive metrics and Sunderland’s struggles away from home, a multi-goal victory for the title contenders appears to be the most logical outcome.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Sunderland vs Arsenal picks.
