Napoli vs. Lazio Odds, Picks & Predictions: How To Bet Thursday Serie A Match
SSC NAPOLI/SSC NAPOLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Lorenzo Insigne.
- Napoli and Lazio sit fifth and sixth in the Serie A table, well within striking distance of a berth in the Champions League.
- Both clubs have been playing well lately, but Napoli's level of competition has been far superior.
- See why Anthony Dabbundo likes the home squad to pick up the three points.
Napoli vs. Lazio Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-159/ +128)|
|Day | Time||Thursday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds updated Wednesday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Napoli and Lazio are within two points of one another entering Thursday’s Serie A clash, turning their matchup into a Champions League six-pointer. If Lazio is able to win, they’d leapfrog Napoli into fifth with a game in hand as the closest challenger to AC Milan, Atalanta and Juventus for the top four.
A Napoli win at home would extend their gap over Lazio to five points and keep them within striking distance of all three teams above them. Lazio’s top four odds sit at 23%, while the hosts sit at 43%, per FiveThirtyEight. This game, if it has a winner, will be a huge pivot game with six matches to go after Thursday (seven for Lazio).
Lazio has the tougher run in of games on their schedule, but the sixth-placed side has been in excellent form in the league. Five consecutive wins and they’ve been impressive in most of them on expected goals, too. But they’ve benefitted from a weak schedule of opponents, while Napoli has been almost as good, albeit against much better opponents.
The hosts have been better than Lazio all year and are undervalued to take all three points on Thursday.
Napoli salvaged a point out of a pretty lackluster performance against Inter Milan in a game that didn’t have a whole lot in it at the weekend. 1.6 combined expected goals and a 1-1 draw is a pretty fair result. Playing the eventual Italian champions even is a good result and performance though, and it’s been a recent trend for Germano Gattuso’s side.
They were marginally better than Roma and Milan in wins over both. Napoli lost to Juventus in a pretty mediocre performance, but also handled Serie A bottom feeders Sampdoria and Crotone easily in the last month. The result is a pretty good team with good underlying metrics deserving of a top four spot.
AC Milan is maintaining its spot in the top four from a hot start to the year, but Napoli’s been one of Italy’s four best since the opening month of the campaign. Lazio is a good matchup for them generally because Lazio will cede possession and space to the hosts.
Napoli wants to keep the ball, pass it around and take shots from distance. They get most of their ball progression from the wings but don’t rely a ton on crosses into the penalty area for offense. Napoli’s attack leads the league in shots per match, even more than Atalanta.
The result is lots of patterns of possession for Napoli, which becomes a problem if the hosts get up early and force Lazio to come out of their countering style.
Lazio has done well in recent weeks to vault themselves back into the Serie A top-four race, but this is a tough matchup for a team that has struggled against the class of the division all year. Take away second-leading scorer Felipe Calceido, and it becomes difficult for Simone Inzaghi’s side to create chances against an excellent Napoli defense out of possession.
Lazio is great at quick strike transition and counters, but Napoli is pretty good at forcing teams to break them down and possess the ball. The White and Sky Blues are ninth in shots per 90, bottom half in xG per shot and allow plenty of shots themselves. They’ve had success at scoring off set pieces, but Napoli is among the best at set piece chance prevention because of elite center back Kalidou Koulibaly.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The current line shows Napoli at even money to take all three points, an implied probability of 50%. My Serie A projections suggest they are undervalued here, and should be -125, which is an implied 55.5%. That’s a 5.5% edge on the market. I’d play the home side to take all three points at -115 or better here as they chase the final Champions League place.
Lazio’s recent run of form has been good for their CL chances, but they’ve been running unsustainably hot and that’s unlikely to continue when they face a much better Napoli side on Thursday.
Pick: Napoli (-115 or better)
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