Tottenham vs. Newcastle EPL Betting Preview, Prediction: Top Pick for Sunday
Simon Stacpoole/Getty. Pictured: Harry Kane.
- Tottenham plays host to Newcastle in the Premier League.
- What side should you back in this one?
- Brett Pund breaks down the fixture and offers his best bet.
Tottenham vs. Newcastle Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-120 / -110)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Closing out Sunday’s Premier League slate, Tottenham Hotspur hosts Newcastle United at White Hart Lane for a match between two top six sides.
Spurs come into the weekend in third and tied on points with Manchester City, while the visitors are five points back in sixth.
The recent history of this fixture has been dominated by Tottenham, who have won seven of the last 10 meetings in the EPL and both games last season.
This should be a very competitive match in the English top flight, and I think the defenses could steal the spotlight.
Tottenham In Solid Position
For all of the negativity and uncertainty surrounding the club, Spurs still find themselves in a great position to qualify for the Champions League next season and the knockout round of the competition this year.
Tottenham has also been very good at home, holding a perfect record and a +5.2 xGDiff in the five fixtures, according to fbref.com.
One key reason for the strong start has been manager Antonio Conte’s defense, which ranks first in the EPL in the fewest big scoring chances allowed (12).
The issues have been on the other end of the pitch, where Conte is struggling to find the perfect trio of attackers to complement striker Harry Kane.
Unfortunately, Richarlison and Dejan Kulusevski are both likely out of this match due to injury.
Newcastle Playing To Top Level
Manager Eddie Howe has his squad on great form entering this game, holding a six-match unbeaten record.
This is the same Magpies team that only has one loss this season, that coming on the road against Liverpool.
Howe’s defensive unit is also one of the best in the English top flight, ranking in the top three in the fewest xG allowed per game (1.01).
One player that has impressed early on this season has been Paraguayan attacker Miguel Almirón. The former MLS star has five goals, which is his highest goal tally since leaving Atlanta United in 2018.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Tottenham are listed as the home favorite with +110 odds to go along with a total of 2.5 goals. I’m not looking to back either of these teams, but I do see value in the number of goals.
My best bet is for the total to fall under 2.5 goals at -110 odds.
I mentioned above how Spurs would likely be missing two key attackers, and Newcastle will also be missing Allan Saint-Maximin and Alexander Isak for this game.
The Magpies tend to play lower-scoring matches away from home. If you remove the game at Fulham where the Cottagers played with 10 men for 80 minutes, the Tyneside club has averaged just 0.925 xG per match, and this same total has cashed in three of four.
This is not good when you have to go on the road to face a Spurs defense that has allowed only 0.82 xG and 0.6 big scoring chances per 90 minutes at home.
Without the big attacking pieces to unlock these strong defenses, I have a hard time seeing many goals in the capital on Sunday.
The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-110)