Borussia Dortmund vs. Sevilla Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, March 9)
Roland Krivec/Getty Images. Pictured: Erling Haaland of Borussia Dortmund celebrates.
- Borussia Dortmund enters Tuesday's second leg of its Champions League fixture with 3-2 advantage over Sevilla.
- The Spanish club must win this game against its German host by at least two goals in order to advance to next round.
- Anthony Dabbundo gives his detailed analysis and explains why he finds value on the total below.
Dortmund vs. Sevilla Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-182 / +145)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||CBS All-Access|
|Odds as of Monday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Borussia Dortmund and Sevilla played a thrilling 3-2 first leg, which went to the German powerhouse three weeks ago.
That has now forced Sevilla to secure a two-goal comeback on the road against the Bundesliga side Tuesday, because the host has three away goals.
Even though the first leg was one of the highest-scoring matches of the competition, all signs point to this meeting being a lower-scoring game.
Dortmund will be without Jadon Sancho, as well as Erling Haaland, who left early in Saturday’s game against Bayern Munich with an injury. He’ll likely play, but might not be 100 percent. Injuries have hurt this team significantly, as Axel Witsel and Raphael Guerriero are also sidelined. Guerriero and Sancho are two of their best creators from wide positions.
The Black and Yellow found plenty of success with quick-strike counters, especially when they were able to spring Haaland in behind. Sevilla like to build slow, and Dortmund kept it from clear finishing positions until the game’s final 10 minutes.
For all of the talk of its leaky defense, Dortmund has also been unlucky with opponents’ finishing against them. The Black and Yellow allowed 28 xGA in the Bundesliga, yet 35 goals. They haven’t been as bad as their topline numbers actually show. The same happened in the first leg, when Sevilla scored twice despite one real scoring chance and 1.15 xG, per InfoGol.
Betting against Spanish teams in the Champions League finished 3-1 in the first legs of the knockout stage. Only Real Madrid won on a late goal after an early red card for Atalanta. Sevilla was picked apart on the counter in the first leg with Dortmund, with Haaland and Sancho scoring goals.
Still, Dortmund is down a lot of attacking talent in this game and will not have the same ability to hit Sevilla as effectively here. Dortmund managed just two shots after the opening 10 minutes in that match against Bayern Munich, as the Black and Yellow were pinned in their own half.
The two early goals caused the game to open up and be played at a pace that Dortmund preferred, but the same is unlikely to be true in the second leg. Sevilla will go through its periods of slow build-up, looking to get the ball out wide to Jesus Navas for crosses into the box.
Sevilla has the third-best defense in Spain, but rank just seventh on the attack. The wide-open first leg was very uncharacteristic for this side.
Betting Analysis & Picks
The first leg was higher scoring because of two early goals — a deflected Suso goal for Sevilla and a 25-yard wonder goal from Mahmoud Dahoud for Dortmund. That game had just 2.3 combined xG, with all three big-scoring chances being converted on top of the two low-percentage goals.
The onus will be on Sevilla to create chances, and it’s one of the slowest tempo and build-up teams in Europe. Sevilla isn’t used to chasing goals, and Dortmund will be focused on protecting its one-and-a-half goal lead due to away goals.
Dortmund knows its defensive liabilities and will probably keep more numbers behind the ball, creating long periods of slow possession build-up for Sevilla that doesn’t lead to clear scoring chances.
I project 2.72 goals in this game, so I like under three goals as my top play and hope great finishing and fluke goals don’t send this one over the number.
Pick:Total Under 3 Goals (-107)