Juventus vs. Porto Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, March 9)

Juventus vs. Porto Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, March 9) article feature image
Credit:

Jonathan Moscrop/Getty Images. Pictured: Cristiano Ronaldo.

  • Juventus dropped the first leg of its Champions League Round of 16 battle with Porto in a 2-1 defeat.
  • The Bianconeri are clearly the better side and rested some key players in the week leading up to this game.
  • Matt Trebby explains below how to back the Italian powerhouse as it looks to advance to the next round.

Juventus vs. Porto Odds

Juventus Odds -225
Porto Odds +575
Draw +370
Over/Under 2.5 (-137 / +112)
Day | Time Tuesday 3 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Sunday afternoon via DraftKings.

Juventus, the nine-time reigning Serie A champion, can’t get knocked out of the Champions League by FC Porto, right? Cristiano Ronaldo can’t lose to a Portuguese team, can he?

First-year manager Andrea Pirlo’s disaster class in the first leg has us asking those questions. A 2-1 Porto win shocked the competition and provided the biggest upset of the Round of 16 so far.

Given Juventus’ track record, though, it’s difficult to see it going out at this stage of the European competition. Let’s examine why — and how — we’re going to back the Bianconeri on Tuesday in Turin.

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Juventus

Since the start of 2021, Juventus have been fantastic in Serie A, going 9-1-2 with a +18 goal difference.

Unfortunately for the Bianconeri, winning yet another Scudetto is looking unlikely given the impressive form of Inter Milan. Juventus took just 24 points from its first 13 games, although that poor form didn’t translate over to the Champions League. The club won its group, which included Barcelona.

Now, about that first leg in Portugal.

From the start, Juventus were quite literally in trouble. It gave the ball away in the center of its own 18-yard box a minute into the game and gifted Porto the opening goal. After conceding in the first minute of the second half as well, a late Federico Chiesa goal gave Juventus a lifeline.

The key for Juventus in this game is going to be relying on its veteran defense to keep a clean sheet. A vintage Juventus performance would be a 2-0 victory, with the likes of Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci keeping Porto in check.

Chiellini’s availability for this game is up in the air, while Bonucci only appeared as an 82nd-minute substitute over the weekend against Lazio. Another player who came off the bench against the Roman side? Ronaldo, who came on in the 69th minute to stay fresh for this game.

Porto

Porto is unlikely to win the Primeira Liga this season, sitting 10 points behind a dominant Sporting Lisbon with 12 games to play. Recent results haven’t helped its chase of Sporting either.

Porto has dropped points in three of its last six games, including a scoreless draw against Sporting on Feb. 27. The club also was eliminated from the Portuguese domestic cup competition by Braga on March 3.

The win over Juventus really, really looks like a gift from the Bianconeri to their Portuguese hosts. Porto entered that game having drawn four consecutive matches, and while it won the expected-goals battle by a 1.4-0.8 margin, its goals were primarily thanks to uncharacteristically shoddy Juventus defending.

Mehdi Taremi and Moussa Marega make up a good strike partnership in the Primeira Liga with 15 combined goals, but against the likes of Bonucci and Matthijs de Ligt, who would likely start in place of Chiellini, you’d think in a big game that they would be no match.

The most concerning stat for Porto is that it has conceded 22 goals in 22 league games this season.

While it was able to sit back earlier this season and lull Manchester City into a 0-0 draw during the Champions League group stages, this is a different proposition. Juventus’ top priority this campaign is, no doubt, winning in Europe. It’s what has eluded the team during what has otherwise been an incredible run of domestic success.

I have a hard time seeing Porto hold Juventus scoreless, and the matchup against one of Europe’s hottest teams and most experienced defenses is a brutal one.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

As I said, a 2-0 Juventus win seems like it would be pretty typical of what the club has been built on over the past decade: stout defending with a knack at getting a goal when it needs it. That would especially be the case against an inferior Porto side.

A 2-0 Juventus win is +600 on DraftKings and something I wouldn’t blame anyone for putting a small wager on. The real value, though, is on Porto’s total.

The visitor’s total for this game is 0.5 goals. The over/under is currently set at -148/+110. Given the way I’ve talked this entire analysis, you know where  we’re headed.

When Juventus need a result like this against a lesser team, it tends to get it. An early away goal from Porto would make this a difficult comeback for Juventus to make. If the Italian champions make it through the first 10 or 15 minutes without conceding, I think they’re going to be in the driver’s seat.

Porto under 0.5 goals at +110 is my best play. I’m going to keep it by itself since parlaying it with the Juventus moneyline (-225) only gets us up to +133 odds.

Pick: Porto — Total Under 0.5 Goals (+110)

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