Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United Odds & Picks: How To Bet Wednesday’s Premier League Match

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United Odds & Picks: How To Bet Wednesday’s Premier League Match article feature image
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Jonathan Moscrop/Getty Images. Pictured: Bruno Fernandes.

  • In hopes of keeping the Premier League title race competitive, Manchester United looks for win Wednesday against Crystal Palace.
  • The Eagles have secured good results as of late, but their advanced metrics indicate incredibly good luck.
  • Kieran Darcy on how he's backing the Red Devils at Selhurst Park below.

Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United Odds

Crystal Palace Odds +700
Manchester United Odds -250
Draw +375
Over/Under 2.5 (-132 / +106) 
Day | Time Wednesday | 3:15 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings.

The Premier League title race appears to be over, thanks to Manchester City’s recent dominance. But Manchester United still have plenty to play for, with their top-four place and a spot in next season’s Champions League far from secure.

On Wednesday, the Red Devils face Crystal Palace, one of four teams to have already beaten them in the league so far this season. Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.

Crystal Palace

Yes, Crystal Palace defeated Manchester United the first time around — a stunning 3-1 victory at Old Trafford. But that was way back on Sept. 19.

Crystal Palace are currently in 13th place with 33 points — 11 places and 17 points behind Manchester United.

Palace are coming off a scoreless draw with Fulham on Sunday, which was preceded by a 2-1 win over Brighton. But both of those results were very fortunate ones. Crystal Palace were outshot 17-3 by Fulham and 24-3 by Brighton — and both those opponents are below Palace in the table.

But Palace’s position in the table is quite fortunate, too. In terms of expected goal (xG) difference, they are the second-worst team in the league at -17.5, behind only West Brom at -27.3 (according to FBref.com).

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Manchester United

Manchester United reside in a different bracket of the table than Palace, as mentioned above. But their second-place position is a bit fortunate, too. In terms of xG difference, Manchester United are fifth at +10.2, behind Manchester City (+29.7), Chelsea (+17.2), Liverpool (+16.8) and Brighton (+11.4).

(Yes, that is correct — Brighton are fourth in the league in xG difference, but 16th in the table. Mind boggling, but the Seagulls do not concern us here.)

Manchester United are the top scorers in the league with 53 goals, one more than Manchester City. But they’ve conceded 32 goals, which are twice as many as Man City.

However, United are coming off a clean sheet against Chelsea on Sunday. Unfortunately for them, it was only a scoreless draw. Manchester United are unbeaten in their past six league matches, but four of them were draws — the others coming against Arsenal (0-0), Everton (3-3) and West Brom (1-1). The two wins were over Southampton (9-0) and Newcastle (3-1).

Betting Analysis & Picks

I’m not concerned by Crystal Palace’s victory over Manchester United earlier this season. That was six months ago, and Wilfried Zaha scored two of Palace’s three goals. Zaha’s been out recently due to injury and is also expected to miss this match.

Zaha has scored nine of Crystal Palace’s 29 league goals this season. No one else has scored more than four. And in the past four matches without Zaha, Palace have failed to score three times. They have a grand total of two goals in that stretch, on 1.4 xG.

So I think it’s pretty unlikely Crystal Palace will score on Wednesday. And on the flip side, they’ve given up 41 shots in their past two matches, and been very lucky to concede only one goal.

Manchester United have much better finishers than Brighton and Fulham — after all, they’re the highest scorers in the league.  They are also unbeaten in their past 20 away matches (13 wins, seven draws). And I think they’ll win this match, and I’ll back them to do so by more than one goal.

Pick: Manchester United -1.5 (+130)

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