Wolves vs Crystal Palace Odds, Pick | Premier League Preview

Wolves Likely to Play For Low-Event Affair

After Wolves dropped points in their match against Leicester, fear of falling into the relegation zone will be at the top of the squad’s mind heading into this fixture. Wolverhampton sits just six points clear of the bottom three and they face a perilous schedule to conclude the season. After Palace, four of their final five games are against top eight sides.

Wolves have been strong in their home stadium in recent matches. They’ve earned five wins in seven home EPL matches in 2023, and in each of those wins they've held a clean sheet against their opponent. Prior to their poor result in King Power Stadium, Wolves experienced a bit of momentum following two strong wins on their home field. They’ll hope to regain that momentum tomorrow upon their return to the Molineux.

Given that Wolves are a very low-scoring team and are desperate for points, they can’t afford to concede against Palace. Luckily for them, Palace looked poor from an attacking standpoint in their last fixture against Everton. I expect Wolves to look a bit more compact tomorrow and to conservatively attack.

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Crystal Palace Regressing From Peak Level

Crystal Palace were on fire prior to their 0-0 draw against Everton – they experienced four wins in their prior five EPL matches and won all three of their prior matches after the return of Hodgson. However, Palace didn’t dominate their opponents in those fixtures, racking up an average of only 1.79 xG while their opponents produced an average 1.21 xG. Palace produced only 1.15 xG against Everton, who have conceded the seventh-most goals in the EPL.

During their recent win over Leicester, the Eagles’ Wilfried Zaha sustained a groin injury and will sit out of tomorrow’s match. This season, Zaha has netted the second most EPL goals on Palace’s roster, burying six in 24 appearances.

After Palace’s stretch of success they rest in 12th place in the table, nine points ahead of the bottom three. They are in a far better position than Wolves as the EPL concludes, and I expect that they will play conservatively in the Molineux and do their best to secure a point.

Wolves vs Crystal Palace Pick

Both Wolves and Palace are bad goal scoring teams: Wolves rank 17th in goals scored per match in the EPL (0.8) and Palace rank 14th in goals scored per match (1.0). Furthermore, both sides have recently played in very low goal scoring games. In four of Wolves last five matches in their home stadium, two or fewer goals were scored. Similarly, in eight of Palace’s last 11 away matches, two or fewer goals were scored.

This match is teed up to be a low scoring one – even more so given Wolverhampton’s fear of relegation and Zaha’s injury. With Wolves in dire need of points and Palace hoping to grab a tie in an away match, I expect this game to be very compact, with few chances on both sides.

I’m taking under 2.5 goals at -172. The odds are short for a reason. Both these teams have a lot of trouble putting the ball in the back of the net and Palace are confirmed to miss their second-leading goal scorer.

Pick: Under 2.5 (-172)

*Pick odds are as of Monday at 6 p.m. ET*