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Wolves vs. Leicester City Preview & Prediction: Target This Plus-Money Prop

Wolves vs. Leicester City Preview & Prediction: Target This Plus-Money Prop article feature image
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Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Leicester City standout Jamie Vardy.

Wolves vs. Leicester City Odds

Wolves Odds +125
Leicester Odds +225
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Odds via BET365. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Fresh off their second win of the season, Leicester heads to the Mollineaux to take on Wolves.

Wolves has had a very difficult start to the season. They are currently in the relegation battle, Bruno Lage has been sacked and two managers who the Wolves tried to hire said no, which means care-taker manager Steve Davis will be in charge through the rest of the season.

Leicester got just their second win of the season on Thursday against Leeds. However, it’s been a really bad season for the Foxes, who are currently sitting at the bottom of the table. However, this is a perfect opportunity for Leicester to put together back-to-back wins.

Wolves

Wolves only created 0.60 xG against Crystal Palace, which means we are now at six straight matches for Wolves without creating a big scoring chance or 1.00 xG from open play. The only two players on Wolves averaging over 0.20 xG per 90 minutes are Hee Chan- Hwang (who hasn’t played three full 90s yet this season) and Raul Jimenez, who is injured.

I’ll keep saying it, but Wolves is incredibly reliant on low quality chances. Wolves’ average shot distance is 18.1 yards from the goal and 44% of their shots are coming from outside the box, where an average shot has an xG rating of 0.03.

Defensively, Wolves have been pretty good. They’re only allowing 1.11 npxG per match and have only conceded eight big scoring chances on the season.

Leicester City

The Foxes average shot distance is 18.6 yards from the goal and 45% of their shots are coming from outside the box. Let’s take a look at their past three matches: they played Nottingham Forest: only 1.1 xG, they played Bournemouth only 1.2 xG created, and they played Crystal Palace:  only 0.9 xG created. 

The one thing Leicester can do well is play through pressure and progress the ball up the field because they are top seven in both of categories. Wolves is not going to press them and is going to sit back in a low block, so I once again have major question marks about Leicester’s ability to break down a low block. 

Additionally, Leicester is due for some positive regression defensively, as they’ve allowed 24 goals off 14.4 expected.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

With both of these offenses relying mainly on shots from outside the box, Wolves not being the type of team that Liecester matches up well against, and Leicester being due for positive regression defensively, this is the perfect recipe for a low-event match.

I have BTTS-No projected at -131, so I like the price on the current line of +120.

The Pick: Both Teams to Score- No (+120) (DraftKings)

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