The United States have clinched passage to the knockout stages of the 2026 FIFA World Cup by winning Group D.
I'll discuss that along with the other teams in the group and what scenarios lie ahead for each team's final game.
Below that, I'll find some futures bets based on my World Cup simulations.
Let's dive into the World Cup Group D advancement scenarios and top World Cup futures.
World Cup Group D
World Cup Group D Advancement Scenarios
- United States: Have clinched first place in the group.
- Australia: A win or draw guarantees second place, a loss guarantees third place. However, as a third-place team they still have an 84% chance of advancing according to the Third Place Dashboard.
- Paraguay: A win gives them second in the group, and a draw gives them third while guaranteeing advancement out of the group stage. A loss puts them at risk of elimination with a 52% chance of elimination according to the dashboard.
- Türkiye: Are eliminated and will finish last in the group..
World Cup Group D Futures
Sadly, I have to take the United States Stage of Elimination to be the Round of 16 which is +250 at theScore. The model has +210 as closer to fair value, and while it likes the USA to advance past Bosnia and Herzegovina at an 80% clip, it thinks the U.S. has about a 40% chance to get eliminated against what currently projects as Egypt or South Korea, but could be someone like Belgium, so a 40% weighted aggregate probability to lose to that trio seems about right.
The edge is pretty thin, so this is only a half-unit bet for me.
Pick: USA Stage of Elimination – Round of 16 (+250 at theScore) – 0.5 units
Additionally, the Aussies are 95% to advance, and project to be losers in the Round of 32 almost no matter who they face. The top two candidates are Belgium and Germany which make up 70% of their likely opponent chances.
Both FanDuel and theScore have their elimination at -165 odds, and my model has them getting eliminated in this stage just over two-thirds of the time, which equates to -205 as fair odds for a 5.1% edge.
Pick: Australia Stage of Elimination – Round of 32 (-165 at FanDuel) – to win 1 unit
