Group K has an exciting conclusion as Portugal and Colombia battle for the group win.
I'll discuss the advancement scenarios along with the other teams in the group and what scenarios lie ahead for each team's final game.
Below that, I'll find some futures bets based on my World Cup simulations. Let's dive into the World Cup Group K advancement scenarios and top World Cup futures.
World Cup Group K
World Cup Group K Advancement Scenarios
- Colombia: A win or draw against Portugal wins the group;
- Portugal: A win over Colombia wins the group. A draw clinches second in the group. A loss plus a DR Congo win means it comes down to tiebreakers between the two teams for second or third, but Portugal should be good to advance on four points.
- DR Congo: Only a win gives them a chance to advance, but with that win four points is likely good enough to see them through.
- Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan is essentially eliminated. It would take a large win and some luck from other games to advance.
World Cup Group K Futures
Colombia is my model's darling, so of course I'm going to look toward their futures here. In case they don't win the group and likely face Spain in the Round of 16, I think the prudent play is to bet them to make the Round of 16, especially considering I have a win Group K future on Colombia.
FanDuel is offering that at -170 or 62.3% implied probability, but my model has it at 70.8%, for an 8.5% edge.
Pick: Colombia to Advance to Round of 16 (-170 at FanDuel)
