Group L plays the first set of games on Saturday, and the Group sets up pretty boring.
I'll discuss the advancement scenarios along with the other teams in the group and what scenarios lie ahead for each team's final game.
Below that, I'll find some futures bets based on my World Cup simulations. Let's dive into the World Cup Group L advancement scenarios and top World Cup futures.
World Cup Group L
World Cup Group L Advancement Scenarios
- England: England has qualified for the next round. They can wrap up the group with a win while maintaining goal difference over Ghana, should Ghana win, or with a win and a Croatia win or draw. A draw keeps England in the hunt for first place, but they'd need a Ghana/Croatia draw. A loss allows the Three Lions to finish second or third in the group.
- Ghana: A win or draw puts Ghana through, and a win plus an England loss or draw makes Ghana the group winner. A win while flipping goal difference on an England win also gives Ghana the group. A draw and an England draw leave Ghana second, while a draw and an England loss gives Ghana the group as well. A loss means Ghana finishes third in the group unless England suffers an even worse defeat.
- Croatia: Wins the group with a win and an England loss or draw. Finishes second in the group with a win and an England win. Finishes third in the group with a draw or loss.
- Panama: Panama is eliminated and will finish last in the group.
World Cup Group L Futures
England are always darlings in the betting market, which makes it hard to find value on their futures. Meanwhile, my model is low on Ghana and has them 84% to get eliminated in the Round of 32.
If you really want to take a -300 bet on that, it is value at 75% implied odds.
Pick: Ghana Stage of Elimination – Round of 32 (-300 at FanDuel)
