The Connecticut Sun (6-18) and Phoenix Mercury (8-17) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 10:00 p.m. EDT at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, Ariz. The game will be broadcast live on ION.
The Mercury are favored by -4.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 164 (-110o / -113u). The Mercury are a -200 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +165 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sun vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks.
Sun vs. Mercury Odds, Pick
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 164 -110o / -113u | +165 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 164 -110o / -113u | -200 |
- Sun vs. Mercury Spread: Mercury -4.5 (-115 ), Sun +4.5 (-105)
- Sun vs. Mercury Over/Under: 164 (-110o / -113u)
- Sun vs. Mercury Moneyline: Sun +165, Mercury -200
- Sun vs. Mercury Best Bet: Brittney Griner Over 13.5 points (-120, Fanatics)
Sun vs. Mercury Preview
The Mercury will try to snap a four-game losing streak when they face the Sun for the first time this season. After reaching the WNBA Finals last year, the Mercury now find themselves near the bottom of the league with an 8-17 mark.
Phoenix's decision to run it back with core veterans like Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner hasn't quite worked out.
You could say Phoenix never really replaced last year's leading scorer, Satou Sabally, who averaged 16.3 points per game. However, there are structural issues with the team that has gone from third in Defensive Efficiency (100.4) to 12th (109.5) this season.
Phoenix currently has the oldest roster in the league, with an average player age of 30 years.
Interestingly, while Phoenix's Defensive Rating has plunged, we see a similar decline in their pace, which is also down from 3rd to 12th.
If we turn to the Sun, their expectations were much lower, given they entered the season with the second-lowest win total at 11.5. We're already more than halfway through the season, and with just six wins on the board, it's increasingly likely that Connecticut will stay under the projection.
However, four of Connecticut's six wins have come in its last seven games, and the team has looked much better, as evidenced by its recent 6-1 run against the spread.
While something will clearly have to give in this matchup, it would've been nice to have a head-to-head matchup between these teams this season to really dig into the numbers.
And although my model projects a fairly comfortable Mercury victory by an eight-point margin, my official recommendation is to target the player props market due to some personnel deficiencies I've identified on this Phoenix roster.
Sun vs. Mercury Prediction
The Mercury could really have their work cut out for them because they tend not to play with a recognized center. At 6-foot-4, Kyara Linskens is the only center listed on the roster, and she's had just one start in 16 appearances this season.
Linskens is also averaging only 10.4 minutes per game, and although she is probable to play, she is on the injury report with a right knee ailment.
Given her limited action as just a second-year player, I'd expect Connecticut's Brittney Griner to be the focal point of the Sun offense.
Griner's scoring prop of 13.5 is right below her season average of 13.9 per game.
However, injuries have limited her to just 14 of Connecticut's 24 games this season. The good news is that there's no sign of Griner on the latest injury report, and she's coming off a 20-point performance against Portland in her last outing.
Moreover, Griner has put together back-to-back 20-point efforts for the first time this season.
There's also a nostalgic angle to consider, as Griner will be facing a Mercury team she played for during her first 11 years in the league.
The Sun could also be without Aneesah Morrow, who is one of three Connecticut players averaging in double figures.
Therefore, when you factor in Connecticut's limited scoring options, Phoenix's lack of size and frontcourt depth, and the fact that Griner is back in her old stomping grounds, scoring over 13.5 points should be well within her reach.
Best Bet: Brittney Griner Over 13.5 points (-120, Fanatics)
