The Golden State Valkyries and Connecticut Sun meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The game will be broadcast live on ION.
The Valkyries are favored by -5.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 155.5 (-105o / -115u). The Valkyries are a -250 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +205 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Valkyries vs. Sun predictions and WNBA picks.
Valkyries vs. Sun Odds, Pick
| Valkyries Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 155.5 -105o / -115u | -250 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 155.5 -105o / -115u | +205 |
- Valkyries vs. Sun Spread: Valkyries -5.5 (-115), Sun +5.5 (-105)
- Valkyries vs. Sun Over/Under: 155.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Valkyries vs. Sun Moneyline: Valkyries -250, Sun +205
- Valkyries vs. Sun Best Bet: Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 21.5 PRA
Valkyries vs. Sun Preview
Something will have to give when the Valkyries visit the Sun tonight. Connecticut is 3-2 in its last five, covering the spread in each of those games, while Golden State is on a perfect 6-0 run straight up and against the spread.
As a result, the Valkyries have shot up the WNBA standings, and it's no surprise they're as high as 7.5-point favorites on the road.
However, the market is leaning toward the home side, considering the Valkyries opened at -8.5.
Another interesting twist is the total, which opened quite low at 153.5 before inching up to 154.5 at some sportsbooks. After a 7-0 start for over bettors in games with a total lower than 160, the last two all stayed under, and both were games involving the Valkyries.
In this preview, I'll share my projections for the game and expand on how the current lines can help identify a player prop for our best bet.
Valkyries vs. Sun Prediction
The Valkyries currently have the second-best defense in the league, allowing 101 points per 100 possessions. During this current winning streak, which dates back to June 24th, Golden State's Defensive Rating has been even better at 93.3.
I've dug a bit deeper into the numbers, splitting the Valkyries' season into two parts. Through their first 12 games, they were an above-average team at 7-5, ranking second offensively with a 110.7 rating, all while playing at the slowest pace (92.85 possessions per game).
But if we look at their last 11 games, their Offensive Rating is down to 103.8 (ranked 13th), while they are playing at an even slower pace of 89.84 possessions per game.
Thus, there have clearly been structural changes in how the Valkyries are now set up.
Although over bettors are still 7-2 on totals under 160, I don't think it's a coincidence that the Valkyries were part of the two recent unders.
I took the bait in playing the over when the Valkyries visited the Mystics with a total of 154.5, and both teams combined to score just 111 points. While the overall numbers suggest the two teams are good defensively, somewhat offensively challenged, and play at a slower pace, I don't think anyone could have foreseen such a low-scoring outcome.
Therefore, despite my model projecting a number closer to 158.5 points, I'm not rushing to the window to play this game over the total. I also make the Valkyries a six-point favorite, which suggests agreement with the line movement we've seen since opening at 8.5.
Even if this game results in a few more points than the current total, I still think it stays under 160 points.
As a result, I like the correlated angle of playing Connecticut's Olivia Nelson-Ododa's points+rebounds+assists prop under 21.5. Nelson-Ododa has stayed under this number in three straight games against teams like Minnesota and Dallas, both of which rank in the top half in pace.
Minnesota is already the best defensive team — a trait it shares with Golden State.
However, Golden State is averaging nearly six fewer possessions per game than Minnesota.
Given the sudden shift in how the market is pricing Golden State's totals, it wouldn't surprise me if there's a bit of a lag when making a similar adjustment for player props.
Nelson-Ododa's PRA prop gives us the best chance to exploit this inefficiency by playing it under 21.5.
Best Bet: Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 21.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-112 at DraftKings)
