The Phoenix Mercury (5-2) and Minnesota Lynx (7-0) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EDT at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN3.
The Lynx are favored by -12.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 158.5 (-113o / -110u). The Lynx are a -800 favorite to win outright, while the Mercury are +550 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mercury vs. Lynx prediction and WNBA picks.
Mercury vs. Lynx Odds, Pick
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 158.5 -113o / -110u | +550 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 158.5 -113o / -110u | -800 |
- Mercury vs. Lynx Spread: Lynx -12.5 (-110 ), Mercury +12.5 (-110)
- Mercury vs. Lynx Over/Under: 158.5 (-113o / -110u)
- Mercury vs. Lynx Moneyline: Mercury +550, Lynx -800
- Mercury vs. Lynx Best Bet: Mercury +12.5
Mercury vs. Lynx Preview
The Lynx are a perfect 7-0, but haven't been as dominant as their record suggests. In fact, five of their wins have come by single digits and they beat this Mercury team by just three in May 30. Of course, that game was in Phoenix and tonight's game will be in Minnesota, so that does need to be accounted for.
On the other side, the Mercury have won three of four and are coming off a road win over the Sparks. Minnesota is heavily favored, but I expect Phoenix to keep this close. Phoenix has lost two games this season, but would have covered this number in both losses.
Mercury vs. Lynx Prediction
This system targets large underdogs in the WNBA regular season in games in which the betting public shows significant support. When underdogs of 11.5 or more points receive at least moderate backing against the spread, it suggests public perception may be driven by recent performance, star power, or market bias rather than true team quality.
This creates an inefficiency in heavily lopsided lines. By siding with these big dogs — despite the public support — you’re capturing inflated lines that overcompensate for public sentiment, particularly in a league where game margins tend to tighten late.
This system has an impressive 22% ROI lifetime (85-50-2) and is already 1-0 this season. Let's back the 'dog tonight and hope this system moves to 2-0 on the season.
Best Bet: Mercury +12.5
