The Phoenix Mercury (12-20) and Connecticut Sun (7-23) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The game will be broadcast live on ION.
The Mercury are favored by -6.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 174.5 (-108o / -112u). The Mercury are a -250 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +198 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into our Mercury vs. Sun predictions and WNBA picks.
Mercury vs. Sun Odds, Pick
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -108 | 174.5 -108o / -112u | -250 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -112 | 174.5 -108o / -112u | +198 |
- Mercury vs. Sun Spread: Mercury -6.5 (-108), Sun +6.5 (-112)
- Mercury vs. Sun Over/Under: 174.5 (-108o / -112u)
- Mercury vs. Sun Moneyline: Mercury -250, Sun +198
- Mercury vs. Sun Best Bet: DeWanna Bonner Over 10.5 (+100)
Mercury vs. Sun Preview
The Connecticut Sun return home to Uncasville on Friday night aiming to stop a painful five-game losing streak as they host the Phoenix Mercury.
Connecticut has found tough sledding on its home court this year with a 4-10 record, contributing to its overall 7-23 mark.
Defensively, the Sun rank third in the Eastern Conference by allowing 87.3 points per contest, though opposing offenses have converted 46.4% of their field goal attempts against them.
Phoenix brings a 12-20 overall record into this matchup alongside a 7-10 mark away from home. The Mercury rank sixth in the Western Conference in glass-cleaning duty, averaging 31.3 rebounds per game behind Alyssa Thomas, who leads the effort with 7.3 boards per contest.
Statistically, Connecticut struggles to generate points from long distance, connecting on just 5.5 three-pointers per game. That is 4.5 fewer made triples than the 10.0 per game Phoenix typically surrenders.
On the other end, Phoenix shoots 44.4% from the floor on the season, which sits slightly lower than the 46.4% defensive field goal percentage allowed by Connecticut.
This showdown marks the third meeting between these two squads this season. Phoenix claimed a 72-63 victory in their most recent matchup on July 19, powered by 21 points from DeWanna Bonner, while Brittney Griner paced the Sun with 19 points.
Mercury vs. Sun Prediction
The best betting opportunity on the board for this game focuses on DeWanna Bonner to eclipse her scoring prop.
Action PRO projects Bonner at 12.25 points against Connecticut. Matching that against a market line of 10.5 points at even money (+100) yields a crisp 17.2% edge, earning the over play a top-tier A+ grade in the system.
Bonner holds a season average of 10.3 points per game in 2026, but her recent volume and usage demonstrate clear momentum above this line.
Even during an unusually rough shooting performance last game against the Dream—where she finished just 1-for-7 from the field and 1-for-6 from deep—she still managed 11 points by going a perfect 8-for-8 from the free-throw line.
That game proved to be the floor, not the ceiling. Prior to that, Bonner scored 14 points against the Sky, poured in 25 points against the Liberty on August 1, and dropped 17 points against the Valkyries on July 29.
Considering she dropped 21 points on the Sun in their last head-to-head meeting, the trajectory is firmly in place for her to clear the 10.5 mark again.
Best Bet: DeWanna Bonner Over 10.5 (+100)
