Mexico will play the USA in the 2026 World Baseball Classic in Houston, Texas, on Monday, March 9. The game will start at 8 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FOX.
Team USA is a -525 Moneyline favorite and an -3.5 (-110) run line favorite. The over/under is set at 11 (-125 / +100).
Here's my Mexico vs USA prediction and World Baseball Classic picks for Monday, March 9.
Mexico vs USA Prediction, Picks
- My Pick: Under 11 (-110 or better)
My Mexico vs USA best bet is on the Under.
Mexico vs USA Odds, Betting Line, Total
| Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 11 -120o / +100u | +375 |
| United States Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 11 -120o / +100u | -500 |
- Mexico vs USA Moneyline: Mexico +375, USA -500
- Mexico vs USA Run Line: Mexico +3.5, USA -3.5
- Mexico vs USA Over/Under: 11 Total Runs
Mexico vs USA Pick, Best Bet for WBC
The primetime matchup features the best single-game pitching staff top-to-bottom in the tournament, and the same staff you can expect to see in a potential semi-final against the Dominican Republic.
Paul Skenes (projected 2.66 FIP, 23.9% K-BB% per ATC) gets the start for the Americans and projects to go four dominant innings before handing the ball to some combination of Griffin Jax, Garrett Whitlock, Gabe Speier, and Mason Miller (2.46 FIP)
Mexico will start Manny Barreda, a 37-year-old who had three appearances for the Orioles in 2021 amid 11 minor-league seasons. He's spent the past few years pitching in independent ball, the Taiwanese CPBL, and the Mexican League.
I expect that he'll face the USA batting order once before manager Benji Gil hands things over to a legitimate bullpen, which features three MLB closers (Andrés Muñoz, Robert Garcia, and Victor Vodnik), and is well rested after a six-inning mercy win over Brazil on Sunday.
Still, facing this USA lineup without a true starter is a significant disadvantage. Mexico is gambling that Barreda can get nine outs without permitting too much damage.
Mexico also has an MLB-caliber, if not potentially major-league-average, lineup. But by wRC+, their two best bats are the eighth- and ninth-best hitters in the projected starting lineups.
I'd expect Team USA's best pitchers to keep Mexico's offense in check. Once Barreda is out of the game, Mexico has enough quality and depth to keep the Americans from getting to double digits.
My projected total is under market, due to the anticipated usage and quality of these bullpens, and the defensive quality of both teams (particularly Team USA).
Take the Under to 11 (-110) pregame, and look to add more live at a better number once Barreda has exited (provided the game is still competitive).
Pick: Under 11.5 (bet to 11, -110)
