The sixth World Baseball Classic begins on Wednesday, March 4, and will run through the championship game on Tuesday, March 17, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.
The goal for this article is to highlight top daily projection edges for World Baseball Classic moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Monday, I preview Colombia-Panama, Dominican Republic-Israel, Brazil-Great Britain, Cuba-Puerto Rico, Venezuela-Nicaragua, and Mexico-United States. Korea-Australia kicked off the day at 6 a.m. ET in Tokyo.
If you want my bets, make sure to follow me in the Action Network App, and if you want my projections for the 5 a.m. ET games, or any of the weekend WBC games, make sure to follow me on Twitter.
Here are my World Baseball Classic Picks and WBC predictions for Monday, March 9.
World Baseball Classic Picks for March 9
Colombia vs. Panama Picks
In my WBC futures preview, I expected to bet on Panama in this head-to-head matchup because the betting market rated them the most likely to advance over Puerto Rico or Canada. Yet, my power rating was much higher for Panama than the futures odds indicated.
Colombia has failed to cover the run line in each of its games. They also went 1-3 in 2023, with their lone win in extra innings over Mexico, albeit as a fairly significant underdog.
Panama pulled off a similarly gigantic upset in terms of odds on Sunday over Canada, but it also has a pair of very close losses in this tournament. They went 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position in a tight game against Cuba's best pitchers, and they blew leads in both the 9th inning and in extra innings against Puerto Rico on Saturday night.
While they are not yet eliminated, Panama would have controlled their own destiny on Monday had it flipped one of those two games.
Both teams have relatively tired bullpens, but I do expect Colombia to throw their best available arms — they can automatically qualify for the next WBC with a win.
Still, Panama's lineup is deeper, with game-changing speed, and putting Enrique Bradfield Jr. at the top of their order may have finally sparked their offense.
I show an actionable moneyline edge, up to -130.
Pick: Panama ML (-130 or better)
Dominican Republic vs. Israel Picks
While I have been even higher on the Dominican Republic than the steep market odds and have successfully laid their runline in wins over Nicaragua and the Netherlands, I think they are slightly overvalued on Monday.
The gap between my projection and the market comes down to how much credit the model gives to the offensive talent disparity, as the DR will face Venezuela tomorrow in a likely Pool D title game, and their staff will likely hold back elite arms (Camilo Doval, Gregory Soto, Carlos Estévez) for that matchup.
While Israel's bullpen still doesn't match up with the weaker Dominican arms, it does have more competent arms in my projections than the Netherlands, which were victimized by the mercy rule on Sunday.
My model projects a total of around 11, compared to openers of 11.5 and 12 at different books.
The mercy rule triggers approximately 9% of the time in my simulation, compressing the total distribution on the high end, but the Under only covers in a 10-0 or 11-0 win for the DR. If Israel scores twice, the game will need to go nine innings for that bet to hit.
As a result, I would keep allocation on this total smaller than the other wagers on Monday's card.
Pick: Under 12 (bet to 11.5 -110)
Brazil vs. Great Britain Picks
Either team can qualify for the next WBC with a win, but I am prepared to bet against Brazil for the fourth consecutive game, after cashing their opponents' runline three times (albeit with a miracle ninth inning for team USA).
I project Great Britain's ML at -525 (84% implied), higher than the market's -360 to -400 range, and see clear value on the favorite as a parlay piece and spread bet.
My model also projects the total around 10.6, driven by Brazil's potentially historically bad pitching. I would take the Over up to 10 (-115).
Still, more of that is driven by bad pitching projections than by strong offensive projections. These teams have combined for a near-40% strikeout rate against opposing pitching in pool play, but their own pitchers have allowed 46 walks against 31 strikeouts.
Pick: Over 9.5 (bet to 10, -115) | Great Britain ML (parlay to -487)
Cuba vs. Puerto Rico Picks
Monday's matchup between Cuba and Puerto Rico should decide the Pool A winner.
I am slightly higher on the host and home team relative to the market. They also had additional rest for their bullpen with Sunday off, while Cuba used eight arms, including their best relievers, in a 7-4 win over Colombia.
Yankees' prospect Elmer Rodríguez gets the start for Puerto Rico. The 22-year-old was in big-league camp after reaching Triple-A in 2025. He has plus stuff and generates ground balls at a high clip, but his command is wonky.
Still, the main weapons are in the home bullpen. Edwin Díaz (2.93 FIP, 25.4% K-BB%), Fernando Cruz (3.56 FIP), and Jovani Morán (3.69 FIP) form one of the deepest relief units in the tournament, and all should be deployed in a potential Pool A title game.
Cuba's lineup around Yoan Moncada also doesn't project nearly as well as Puerto Rico's top-to-bottom depth, which is swamped by the other "name brand" teams but is strong relative to Pool A, the weakest group in the field.
My model set the total closer to 9, well below market, and it was my largest numerical disagreement on the slate.
Puerto Rico's elite bullpen, and the likelihood that both managers have quick hooks for their pitchers with a chance to qualify from and/or win Pool A, should compress the run-scoring environment for this matchup.
Pick: Under 10.5 (bet to 9.5, -115) | Puerto Rico ML (parlay to -355)
Venezuela vs. Nicaragua Picks
Similar to the Dominican Republic-Israel game, Venezuela's top relievers (including Danny Palencia and Eduard Bazardo) will likely get held back for Monday's matchup with the DR. That would leave their B and C-tier arms to do the heavy lifting late against Nicaragua, unless the elite Venezuela lineup can enact the mercy rule.
I'm basically in line with the market on the side, but set the total closer to 11 runs, and the market is at 10.5, juiced to the Under.
I'd consider plus money on the Over 10.5, wait for the number to drop to 10, or target a Venezuela team total.
The expected bullpen downgrade for Venezuela is likely the key factor pushing the game total above market.
I'll wait for derivatives markets to open before deciding whether to bet or pass on this game.
Pick: TBD
Mexico vs. United States Picks
The primetime matchup features the best single-game pitching staff top-to-bottom in the tournament, and the same staff you can expect to see in a potential semi-final against the Dominican Republic, as Paul Skenes (projected 2.66 FIP, 23.9% K-BB% per ATC) gets the start for the Americans and projects to go four dominant innings before handing the ball to some combination of Griffin Jax, Garrett Whitlock, Gabe Speier, and Mason Miller (2.46 FIP)
Mexico will start Manny Barreda, a 37-year-old who had three appearances for the Orioles in 2021 amid 11 minor-league seasons. He's spent the past few years pitching in independent ball, the Taiwanese CPBL, and the Mexican League. I expect that he'll face the USA batting order once before manager Benji Gil hands things over to a legitimate bullpen, which features three MLB closers (Andrés Muñoz, Robert Garcia, and Victor Vodnik), and is well rested after a six-inning mercy win over Brazil on Sunday.
Still, facing this USA lineup without a true starter is a significant disadvantage. Mexico is gambling that Barreda can get nine outs without permitting too much damage.
Mexico also has an MLB-caliber, if not potentially major-league-average, lineup. But by wRC+, their two best bats are the eighth- and ninth-best hitters in the projected starting lineups.
I'd expect Team USA's best pitchers to keep Mexico's offense in check. Once Barreda is out of the game, Mexico has enough quality and depth to keep the Americans from getting to double digits.
My projected total is under market, due to the anticipated usage and quality of these bullpens, and the defensive quality of both teams (particularly Team USA).
Take the Under to 11 (-110) pregame, and look to add more live at a better number once Barreda has exited (provided the game is still competitive).
Pick: Under 11.5 (bet to 11, -110)
Zerillo's WBC Predictions for March 9
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- Brazil/Great Britain, Over 9.5 (-115, Risk 1u), FanDuel; bet to 10 (-115)
- Cuba/Puerto Rico, Under 10.5 (-110, 1u), FanDuel; bet to 9.5 (-115)
- Dominican Republic/Israel, Under 12 (-110, 0.5u), FanDuel; bet to 11.5 (-110)
- Korea -2.5 Runs (-110, 0.5u) DraftKings (bet to -133)
- Mexico/United States, Under 11.5 (-110, 1u), Caesars; bet to 11 (-110)
- Panama (-110, Risk 1u), DraftKings; bet to -130
- Parlay (+128, 0.25u), Caesars: Korea (-260), Great Britain (-365), Puerto Rico (-330)
- Parlay (-130, 0.25u), Caesars: Korea (-260), Great Britain (-365)
