Sean Koerner

Bo has cleared this in 4 of his last 5 games, but a deeper look shows he’s scrambling at a much lower rate this season, with only 2 scrambles over his last 3 games. Both of those went for 21+ yards, which is the clear path for this prop to lose early.. 1 or 2 long scrambles and it’s toast. Like every prop, there’s a very real way it loses, and that’s it. Nix has only scrambled on 4.5% of his dropbacks this season compared to 7.7% as a rookie. I actually think he should be scrambling more since he’s a good runner, but he’s playing more in structure this year and behind an elite offensive line that keeps his pocket clean. He should have one of his cleanest pockets of the season against a Raiders defense that ranks 2nd worst in pressure rate. Maxx Crosby has the lowest pressure rate of his career because teams are doubling him and the rest of the Raiders pass rush hasn’t stepped up. That means Nix should face even less pressure that would push him out of the pocket to use his legs. I still expect 1-2 scrambles and maybe a design run or two, but the Raiders have been one of the best teams at limiting yards on scrambles, allowing just 5.3 yards per scramble (3rd lowest in the league) despite facing several mobile QBs. Plus, they’ve been more aggressive with where their safeties line up, with Jeremy Chinn playing 0 snaps deep last week and Isaiah Pola-Mao lining up 3 yards closer to the line of scrimmage. A similar approach this week could limit the odds of Nix hitting another 20+ yard scramble. It’s possible he pops one early, but I think the market is a bit inflated based on those recent long runs. I have this closer to 18.5 yards with around a 59% chance he stays under 21.5.

Singleton has been a tackle machine this year, averaging 8.7 per game, and in most matchups an 8.5 line would make sense. But this week looks inflated for a few reasons. He’s heavily involved in run defense and typically gets a tackle on about 22% of opponent rushes, but Denver’s opponents have averaged 25.5 rushes per game. I’m projecting the Raiders closer to 21.5, which is about 4 fewer runs.. meaning fewer tackle chances. The Broncos are 7-2 but have trailed at some point in every game, allowing opponents to lean on the run more than expected. This week, that script likely flips, especially with Pat Surtain out. The Raiders should throw more, particularly outside, where tackle chances for LBs drop off. While Brock Bowers will see plenty of targets, he’s essentially a WR. Only about 22% of his receptions involve a LB in on the tackle, so Singleton probably won’t rack up many on him. Another key factor..Geno Smith offenses have consistently produced fewer LB tackle opportunities. The Raiders have provided the 3rd fewest tackle opps for LBs this season, and Geno’s Seahawks ranked dead last in 2023. That trend has carried over year to year. Finally, Dre Greenlaw made his Broncos debut last week and, despite only a 37% snap share, led the team with 7 run tackles. His snap count should climb, which could start cutting into Singleton’s run tackles. Add in the fact that Ashton Jeanty leads the league with a 31% stuff rate (limiting runs that reach the 2nd level) and there’s even less tackle upside. It’s not for the faint of heart fading Singleton, but everything here points to his line being about a tackle too high. I have him projected at 7.4 with roughly a 63% chance to stay under 8.5.

Caleb has cleared 280+ passing yards in back-to-back games, so I think his market is a bit inflated here because of it. This is a matchup against the Giants, who are more of a run funnel, where I expect Chicago to lean on the run more.. especially with Kyle Monangai looking great last week in his first start. I’m simply expecting his volume to be down in this spot. This was a prop I had circled to dig into during my Fri/Sat projection sweep, but with the weather forecast looking ugly and both Odunze and Moore banged up and limited in practice, I wanted to lock it in early at this number. I’m projecting him closer to 220 yards with around a 60% chance to stay under 232.5. A lot can change before kickoff, but most of that uncertainty points toward this line dropping once I run my full process later in the week.