Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo Prop Bets: 4 Long-Shot Picks for Boxing’s Big Pay-Per-View (Saturday, September 30)

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo Prop Bets

The pick is in, and I've made my official Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo bet. But I'm also back with long-shot prop bets to consider for the pay-per-view main event.

The mega bout between Alvarez (59-2-2, 39 KOs) and Charlo (35-1-1, 19 KOs) takes place Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

It's a Showtime PPV event (9 p.m. ET main card), one of (if not the last) superfights of 2023, and we've already placed our bet on who's winning.

However, in this piece, we're also going to look at four viable long-shot plays, courtesy of FanDuel, that are probably worth your time if you want a little more betting action on Alvarez vs. Charlo.

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Jermell Charlo to Be Knocked Down in Rounds 1-6 (+650)

Jermell Charlo is coming off a 16-month layoff, and typically in combat sports, you'd want to test that chin early.

Canelo Alvarez isn't always a fast starter, but he's been a better starter than finisher as of late, which was the case against John Ryder in May, Gennady Golovkin last year, and even Dmitry Bivol, though, he lost that entirely.

Canelo could break down Charlo late, but that could occur independent of an early flash knockdown.

I think this bet – Charlo to be knocked down in Rounds 1-6 (+650) – is worth a shot given Charlo's ring rust, the fact that he's jumping up two weight classes from super welterweight (154 pounds) to super middleweight (168 pounds), and he's also given up rounds before to lesser fighters in said smaller weight class while more active.

He's a talented boxer, one of the world's pound-for-pound top 10, but Canelo will test him early, especially to the body. And if John Jackson, Brian Castano, Tony Harrison and Jeison Rosario could find early success and defensive cracks on Charlo, Canelo break those open and put his challenger in danger.

Canelo Alvarez to Win in Rounds 9-12 (+700)

If Canelo does stop Charlo, it could be – should be – late.

And if it does, I think Rounds 9-12 is the way to go. Top-flight boxers could have moments against Alvarez prior to him getting a late stoppage.

Caleb Plant was in a relatively close fight with Canelo through 10 rounds just two years ago, down 96-94 and 97-93 on two of the three cards, but he was stopped in Round 11 after being dropped twice.

Sergey Kovalev was down 96-94 on two cards and was on a 95-95 draw on the third before being knocked out in Round 11. I think, particularly the Plant fight is one to watch as a road map to a Canelo stoppage.

Charlo is good enough to push Canelo and has an advantage at 6-foot and with a 73-inch reach over 5-foot-8 Alvarez, who is just above a 70-inch reach. Plant is 6-foot-1 with a 74-inch each, and he had similar physical advantages, weight aside – though, Charlo isn't a small 154.

Plant landed on Canelo, especially early. There were jabs to the body and overhand rights from a distance, and he was good enough defensively to withstand much of Canelo's most dangerous inside work until late in the bout.

Charlo could have similar success, but Canelo has a size advantage he could impose if he's able to fight on the inside for the duration of the evening, which Charlo can't allow if he's looking to win.

Canelo Alvarez by Split Decision (+1000) | Alvarez by Majority Decision (+1600)

I'm betting Canelo by unanimous decision at +125, but let's actually talk this one out – because these aren't unreasonable, and when a fight has the potential to be close, it's at least worth a thought exercise.

Canelo and Charlo are both 33, but Alvarez has been a pro since 2005 and has 63 pro fights to Charlo's 37 since his 2007 start.

I don't think Canelo is going to lose this fight, but I also don't think he'll just win forever – as we saw against Bivol last year.

And – if I can put a conspiracy theory hat on – in boxing you have to bet on the judges. It's financially beneficial for Charlo to keep this close because of a potential superfight with Terence Crawford on the horizon for 2024 at super welterweight.

Charlo is skilled enough to earn a split or majority decision, and in the event Canelo wins, if Charlo is good enough to win a few rounds, this is in play. And even if he isn't, all it takes is one questionable judge. And in this sport, we get at least one of them more often than we should.

On the flip side, if this is Canelo going downward and actually losing this fight, and let's say Charlo not cutting to 154 is highly beneficial – which can't be ruled out – Canelo has been the beneficiary of several eye-popping cards in the past (see scorecards against Golovkin, Erislandy Lara, Miguel Cotto and Floyd Mayweather among others) to get this one in Vegas, where he is notoriously tough to beat. Even the 115-113 cards against Bivol were 2-3 rounds too close.

Picks: Canelo Alvarez by Split Decision (+1000 at FanDuel) | Alvarez by Majority Decision (+1600 at FanDuel)