CFL Betting Tip: Should Bettors Follow Argonauts-Roughriders Line Move?

CFL Betting Tip: Should Bettors Follow Argonauts-Roughriders Line Move? article feature image

Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Saskatchewan Roughriders kicker Brett Lauther

  • The Toronto Argonauts have moved from 12.5- to 10-point underdogs against the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Monday (7 p.m. ET, TSN).
  • Using Bet Labs we analyze how early-season underdogs perform when the line moves in their direction.

It is Monday night, which means pigskin. Are you ready for some football?

It is July instead of October, so we are trading the National Football League for the Canadian Football League. The CFL isn’t popular in the continental United States, but for football junkies it beats wagering on baseball.

The Monday night showdown features the Saskatchewan Roughriders hosting the Toronto Argonauts (7 p.m. ET, TSN). The Riders opened as 12.5-point favorites at home.

Early action has been on the Argos moving the line to Toronto +10.

Should bettors follow the line movement in this CFL primetime matchup?

History says yes. Since 2005, underdogs in the CFL have gone 544-466-18 (53.9%) against the spread (ATS) according to Bet Labs. Early in the season (June and July) when the oddsmakers know the least about each team and lines are soft, teams getting points have performed even better.

The data points to Toronto as the play but some bettors may be hesitant to back the Argonauts getting the worst of the number. That is a fair concern, however, line movement toward the underdog has been a strong indicator of success.

Since 2005, when the line moves in the underdog’s direction — by becoming smaller dogs — early in the season those teams have gone 54-29 (65.1%) ATS.

Saskatchewan has started the season 0-2. The Riders’ starting quarterback, Zack Collaros, suffered a concussion in the team’s opener against Hamilton and will not play on Monday.

Despite the poor start and the injury, the Roughriders are double-digit favorites at home and thus are likely to get their first win, but aren’t locks to cover.

A majority of spread ticket and dollars are on the Argonauts and history tells us Toronto has a good chance to cash tickets for bettors as an early season underdog with positive line movement.

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