There's a question that has haunted Pixar since 1995: what do you do after you've already made something close to perfect? The studio answered it once with Toy Story 2, and again with Toy Story 3. Now, with Toy Story 5 hitting theaters on June 19, they have to answer it one more time. Can they do it again?
On Kalshi, traders are asking a very specific version of that question: will Toy Story 5 land above 95% on Rotten Tomatoes by June 22? The answer depends on a franchise track record that is, by any measure, extraordinary.
A Near-Perfect Legacy on Rotten Tomatoes
Rotten Tomatoes aggregates professional reviews and calculates an approval rating based on what percentage of critics recommend a film. The math is simple: if 95 out of 100 critics give a thumbs up, the score is 95%.
When Toy Story arrived in 1995, Rotten Tomatoes didn't exist yet. It was Pixar's first feature, and the beginning of a saga that would go on to redefine animated cinema. Today, both Toy Story and Toy Story 2, which nearly went straight-to-video before Pixar decided it deserved a theatrical release, hold a 100% approval rating on the site. That's a rare distinction: not even Citizen Kane, Casablanca or The Godfather can claim it.
When Toy Story 3 came out in 2010, it was the first in the series released while Rotten Tomatoes was already a fixture of film criticism.
It debuted with extraordinary numbers and currently holds a 98% approval rating across more than 310 professional reviews. It more than doubled the box office of Toy Story 2, crossed a billion dollars worldwide, and became the third animated film ever nominated for the Best Picture Oscar.
It also won Best Animated Feature: the award didn't exist when the earlier films were released.
Director Quentin Tarantino has called it one of the few perfect trilogies in cinema history, ranking it alongside The Good, The Bad and the Ugly.
The Cracks in the Armor
The bar was sky-high when Toy Story 4 arrived in 2019. It cleared it, just barely. The film earned a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and won the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. By any standard, that's a triumph.
But the audience reception told a slightly different story. IMDb scores across the franchise reveal a subtle but consistent pattern:
- Toy Story: 8.3
- Toy Story 2: 7.9
- Toy Story 3: 8.3
- Toy Story 4: 7.6
Metacritic, which weighs numerical scores rather than just positive/negative verdicts, tells a similar tale:
- Toy Story: 92
- Toy Story 2: 88
- Toy Story 3: 94
- Toy Story 4: 84
None of those numbers are bad. But the downward trend in audience scores, combined with a period of commercial and critical turbulence for Pixar in the years that followed, suggests a franchise that, however beloved, isn't immune to fatigue.
Early Signs Point Up for Toy Story 5
The review embargo for Toy Story 5 lifted three days before the wide release.
Early critical responses, which started flowing after the Los Angeles premiere on June 9, have been overwhelmingly positive. Several reviewers placed the film alongside the first three entries in the franchise, describing it as emotional, funny, and a genuine return to form for Pixar. A few noted a slightly disjointed opening, but the consensus has been strong.
Director Andrew Stanton, whose previous credits include Finding Nemo and WALL-E, brings the toys face to face with their newest threat: technology. Woody and Buzz, voiced again by Tom Hanks and Tim Allen, must compete with Lilypad, an interactive tablet toy voiced by Greta Lee, for the attention of their owner Bonnie.
On Kalshi, traders have been pricing in a final score somewhere around 93% for weeks, below the 95% threshold the market asks about, but still well above the franchise's lowest mark. With professional reviews now arriving, that number could shift quickly in either direction.
The Impossible Question, Revisited
Pixar has spent three decades finding ways to top itself. Whether Toy Story 5 clears 95% on Rotten Tomatoes or lands just below, as traders currently expect, the franchise's legacy remains untouched.
The question was never really whether Pixar could make a good Toy Story. It was whether they could keep making great ones. The critics are filing in. The market closes June 22. The answer is almost here.
