A movie. A journey. A story. A prize. A prediction market.
Christopher Nolan's retelling of The Odyssey needed about two weeks in theaters to take over the conversation around next year's Oscars.
On Kalshi's market for Best Picture, The Odyssey has gone from one name among several to the clear favorite, and the shift happened fast.
The Odyssey Pulls Away in the Best Picture Market
For most of the spring, four contenders traded places near the top of Kalshi's Best Picture board, none separated by much. That changed once Nolan's film opened.
Why The Odyssey Is the Frontrunner
A few things explain the shift:
- Scale & Box Office. The film cost more than $250 million before marketing, the kind of budget the Academy rarely ignores when the results land well.
- Reviews. It opened to a 94% critics' score on Rotten Tomatoes, plus strong marks on Metacritic and IMDb, reportedly among Nolan's best-reviewed films.
- Cast & Director. Matt Damon leads an ensemble that includes Anne Hathaway, Tom Holland and Robert Pattinson, among other celebrities. And Nolan's last film, Oppenheimer, swept the Academy Awards. Interstellar, Inception and The Dark Knight didn't need a statue to matter, either.
Why It's Too Soon to Call the Race
History complicates that story.
Fantasy films rarely win Best Picture: only a small handful, including The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, have managed it across more than 90 years of the ceremony, and The Odyssey fits squarely in that genre.
The Academy has also shown a habit of favoring smaller, grounded dramas over big-budget spectacle: Spotlight beat Mad Max: Fury Road, Moonlight beat La La Land, and this past March, One Battle After Another beat Sinners, despite Sinners arriving with a record 16 nominations.
There's also the calendar.
The Academy tends to reward films that open late in the year, close to voting, so the buzz doesn't fade. The Odyssey opened in July.
And the film hasn't been free of controversy.
Its casting, armor design and modern-sounding dialogue have drawn criticism online, with Elon Musk among the most vocal critics.
Dune: Part Three, Digger and the Rest of the Field
Dune: Part Three faces the same genre problem as The Odyssey, since science fiction rarely wins. But the first two films matched The Lord of the Rings trilogy's early Oscar haul, so a similar late run isn't out of the question. But nobody has watched it yet.
Digger also hasn't opened. Early test-screening chatter points to a mixed reaction, though nothing official has been confirmed.
Project Hail Mary, the Ryan Gosling-led adaptation already in theaters, drew strong reviews and solid box office, but blends science fiction and comedy, two categories the Academy rarely rewards.
What Could Still Change Before the Oscars
Ten films will earn a Best Picture nomination when the Academy announces them in January 2027, but only one takes the trophy home, at the ceremony on March 14.
Several of the dramas the Academy traditionally favors haven't opened yet; some are still waiting on festival premieres or year-end releases timed to catch voters before ballots close.
The Verdict: Buy Now or Wait Out the Storm?
Holding a "YES" contract on The Odyssey at its current price doesn't feel like a reckless move, but it's far from a guaranteed victory lap in March.
We are only in July, and history shows that the heaviest Oscar hitters usually hold back their releases for the final months of the year to stay fresh in voters' minds. If Christopher Nolan’s epic can turn this historic opening weekend into a sustained, months-long box office marathon, its Best Picture path will remain strong.
However, the smartest position right now might simply be patience. The race for Best Picture is a grueling marathon where the trophy sometimes goes to the contender that suffers the least wear and tear along the way. With half the field still waiting in the wings, there is plenty of time to watch how the waters shift before anchoring down.
Odysseus needed a decade of storms, monsters and bad luck before Ithaca came into view. The Odyssey's own path to the stage has barely started, and the next six months of releases will decide whether it ends the way the market currently expects.
