The PGA Tour begins its annual Florida Swing this week at the Honda Classic at PGA National, which always ranks as one of the most difficult stops on Tour. Last season, only the U.S. Open, PGA Championship, Open Championship and WGC event in China were more difficult.
The Honda Classic has been one of the best spots for off-the-radar winners over the years. Four of the last seven winners had odds of 200-1 or higher and someone in the triple-digits finished inside the top-3 in each of the last eight years.
With all that in mind, here are our favorite bets for the 2020 Honda Classic:
Jason Sobel
The Bet: Byeong-Hun An (-110) over Shane Lowry
If there’s a profile we’re looking for at PGA National, it’s ball-strikers who aren’t necessarily great putters. I didn’t mention An in my original tourney preview, but I put him in the same category as guys like Emiliano Grillo and Corey Conners — players whose below average putting stats should be negated a bit this week. Fresh off a final-round 65 in Mexico, he should have some momentum, as well.
But this is as much an An bet as a Lowry fade. In Florida Swing events over the past five years, Lowry has made 11 starts and has no top-10s, just one top-25 and has missed the cut six times. Sure, there’s a thought that he’s more valuable in the predicted windy conditions this week, but it’s not enough for me to keep from fading him — especially in this matchup.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Justin Bailey
The Bet: Byeong-Hun An (-110) over Shane Lowry
At PGA National I’m targeting golfers who excel tee-to-green and have strong short games because they’ll have to grind out up-and-downs for par at this difficult course.
An checks both of those boxes considering he leads the field in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over his last 50 rounds (Fantasy National). Despite his putting woes, An boasts a scrambling rate of 63.1% over the last 75 weeks, compared to just 57.2% for Lowry, per the FantasyLabs Player Models.
Adon S.
The Bet: Daniel Berger (-120) to beat Viktor Hovland
I grabbed this line at +100 when odds opened and would still bet it at its current figure. Berger, a Florida native and nearby Jupiter resident, returns home following a successful West Coast swing where he had two Top-10 finishes during his last two starts at Phoenix and Pebble.
Berger’s breakthrough performance as a rookie took place here in 2015 and his only two PGA Tour wins both came at TPC Southwind in Memphis — which is my top “comp course” for PGA National.
This is Hovland's Honda Classic debut and I expect this to be a hangover spot after his first professional win in a weak Puerto Rico field. Converging trends point to Berger having a big week if he can avoid the Honda carnage.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Josh Perry
The Bet: Billy Horschel top 20 +150
After a few rough starts early in his career, Horschel seems to have PGA National figured out. He’s finished inside the top-20 in three of his last four appearances. The Florida Gator alum is also in some good form with back-to-back top-10 finishes.
[Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
