2021 Charles Schwab Challenge Picks: Our Best Prop Bets at Colonial
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Spieth
The PGA TOUR heads back to Texas this week for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial. One of the TOUR’s most iconic stops, Colonial is a par 70 that measures around 7,200 yards. If the wind picks up, it can play fairly difficult. If it’s calm, we’ll could see a winner near 20-under par.
Jordan Spieth is the betting favorite at +1000, but he’s got plenty of company at the top of the board with Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Abraham Ancer, Tony Finau and Patrick Reed right behind him.
Will this be a week for the stars? Or will we see some chaos in the Lone Star State? Check out our favorite prop bets for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge:
Jordan Spieth Top-10 Finish (+125)
Last year, I researched and wrote a piece on how a bettor would’ve done blindly betting the pre-tourney favorite for every PGA TOUR event. (The answer: Not great, other than the years Tiger Woods was in total domination mode.) Maybe one of these days, I’ll write something similar on blindly betting every favorite as a top-10. This is as unsexy a prop as we can find, but as I’ve written before, unsexy plays still pay.
The dirty little secret within Camp Spieth has always been that while it was the AT&T Byron Nelson which gave him his first start and attracted his loyalty, the crosstown Colonial always suited his game much better. That’s evidenced by the fact that he owns a win and six top-10s in eight career starts at this event. That, of course, is a 75% top-10 clip, while his +125 number implies a 44.4% chance of cashing this prop.
Considering he’s in better form than he was entering some of those previous top-10s, I think this could be the smartest play on the board this week.
Emiliano Grillo Top-10 Finish (+450)
It appears I have a thing for elite ball-strikers that can’t putt it in the ocean this week. Grillo fits the same mold of Collin Morikawa and Joel Dahmen as another top approach player in this field who gets held back each week by his flat stick. One positive I have with the Argentinian is that he’s gained strokes on the greens at this event in three of his five trips, with a peak of more than 10 strokes gained in 2018 when he finished third. If he can avoid disaster on the greens like he had last year when he lost more than six strokes to the field, his approach play will have him in the conversation all weekend.
Grillo has gained more than seven strokes on the field with his irons in three of his last four tournaments, including on the world-class field last week at the PGA Championship. If he can pepper these greens with solid approaches this week, they are small enough to give him good birdie looks every time.
I like his potential to finish high this week and even have a play in for him to win it outright.
Gary Woodland Top-5 Finish (+900)
Gary Woodland has been showing flashes of returning to his peak form of a few years ago, and there is reason to believe he may be all the way back. In his past two starts, he has gained 8.1 and 4.4 strokes tee to green. The strong iron play has led him to contention in three of his past five starts. I also love that he can club down off the tee this week, which is a strategy that has yielded excellent results for him.
Last month, Woodland placed sixth at the Valero Texas Open, showing he has a knack for Texas golf courses and bentgrass greens. Woodland also finished ninth at Colonial last year in his only start at the course.
I have no doubt he can build off of that performance and win the Charles Schwab Challenge this week.
Brian Harman Top-10 Finish (+275)
Harman had been locked in all year before his putter let him down at the PGA Championship a week ago. We should definitely chalk that up to an aberration as we know Harman is one of the better putters on the PGA TOUR. He now heads back to Colonial, where he’s finished inside the top-31 in seven of eight starts since 2011. In that stretch he has two top-10s as well.
Despite actually hitting it really well last week, a shorter 7,200 yard course is way more in his wheelhouse and I really like him to contend this week, but 30/1 is a little too short for me. Instead we can bet him to top 10 at close to 3/1 which is the preferred play.
Charley Hoffman Top-20 Finish (+175)
What an unbelievable stretch of play Charley has been on of late. Eight out of his 11 starts in 2021 have yielded a top-20 finish, four of which have come in his last four starts. He has been absolutely dialed in with the irons, averaging nearly four strokes gained on approach per event since the start of the year.
He has finished inside the top-20 four times in nine tries at Colonial and has only missed one cut. The only aspect of his game that could hold him back is his putter, but that is always a risk with Charley.
I like Charley’s chances of continuing his hot stretch of play this week, and he could be in contention to win this thing come Sunday. Getting nearly 2/1 on a top-20 finish feels too good to pass up here.