2021 Hero World Challenge Odds & Best Bets: 7 Picks, Including How to Back Xander Schauffele & Sam Burns

2021 Hero World Challenge Odds & Best Bets: 7 Picks, Including How to Back Xander Schauffele & Sam Burns article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Schauffele (left) and Sam Burns.

Click here to for opening Hero World Challenge odds (via DraftKings)
Rory McIlroy+750
Collin Morikawa+750
Justin Thomas+900
Viktor Hovland+1100
Jordan Spieth+1100
Xander Schauffele+1200
Bryson DeChambeau+1200
Sam Burns+1400
Scottie Scheffler+1600
Abraham Ancer+1600
Webb Simpson+1800
Daniel Berger+1800
Tony Finau+2200
Matthew Fitzpatrick+2500
Justin Rose+2500
Brooks Koepka+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2800
Patrick Reed+3000
Harris English+3500
Henrik Stenson+6500

The best field we have this fall comes in the Bahamas, where Tiger Woods hosts the 2021 Hero World Challenge.

Of course, golf's GOAT has made headlines this week, but a field that has 17 of the world's top-25 players is quite the headliner this week. We'll see many American Ryder Cup stars among the 20-player field, including some who have not been very active this fall.

The fact that such a field has shown up, though, speaks to the respect the golf community has for Woods. This tournament is a huge boost for the Tiger Woods Foundation and other charitable efforts.

Our team has analyzed the field and found their picks for the week. Check out everyone's pick below:

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Justin Thomas (+1000)

Jason Sobel: I’ll bypass tourney co-fave Collin Morikawa (alongside Rory McIlroy) with clenched teeth, knowing he’s fully capable of repeating his recent in Dubai success, in favor of a player who fits the profile of recent winners here, as he’s both trending in the right direction and motivated for a victory.

Granted, it feels like we’ve been saying this about Thomas for the past six months, but it rings especially true lately, with three finishes of fourth-or-better in his past five starts. There aren’t many who could claim The PLAYERS and still call it a disappointing year, however that’s the case for Thomas.

Previous results of 5th-12th-11th at this event don’t exactly scream optimism, though we’ve got to believe the Bahamas is more of a business trip for him than many others – and identifying the line between the two is essential in finding success this week.

Patrick Reed (+3000)

Chris Murphy: When we get into events like the Hero World Challenge it sometimes comes down to the guys that will take it serious enough to go out and focus on winning.

Patrick Reed is always that type of guy, who is ultra competitive, and will sometimes, uh, stretch the limits to contend. I love getting him at +3000 in a short field on a course that he has historically played well with two top-five finishes in his last four trips.

The big, glaring concern with Reed is around his recent form, as he struggled in his final two events of the fall swing. I would usually have hesitation for players not showing good play coming into the event, but Reed is wired differently and seems to be able to put it all together when we least expect it. I’ll happily take a shot in this 22-man event and see if he can find the coastal form that had him finish second in Bermuda at the end of October.

Bet Patrick Reed at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

Justin Rose (+2800)

Matt Vincenzi: Justin Rose comes into the Hero World Challenge as one of the handful of golfers who have been playing recently, having finished 12th a few weeks ago at the RSM Classic. The Englishman played quite well in the event, gaining strokes on the field in every measurable category, including an impressive 4.8 strokes from tee to green for the week. After a down year, Rose has shown some flashes of getting back on track, having finished 10th at Wyndham and 6th at Wentworth prior to his encouraging week at the RSM Classic.

In addition to some encouraging recent form for the 41-year-old, Rose has also shown that he loves Albany Golf Club. He has finished in the top 5 in his past three trips to Albany: boasting a 5th, 3rd, and 5th in the three starts. Rose’s comfortability at the course may be attributed to the fact that he was a longtime Bahamas resident. He shot a closing 62 on Sunday in the 2015 edition of the event, proving he has what it takes to go low here.

Both recent and course form are clearly in Rose’s favor this week, but there is another factor that pushes him over the edge for me: motivation. A major aspect of handicapping the Hero World Challenge is trying to determine who is there to enjoy a vacation with their family or significant other and who is there to compete for a victory. For me, it is quite clear that Justin Rose is there for the latter reason. Currently sitting at 47th in the Official World Golf Rankings, a good finish this week would go a long way. He has been remarkably consistent throughout his career and is in danger of falling out of the world’s top 50 for the first time in a decade.

While many in the field view the Hero World Challenge as a “hit and giggle” event, Justin Rose is there to hoist a trophy on Sunday.

Brooks Koepka (+2500)

Joshua Perry: Koepka usually isn't much of a play during an event like this but at this number in a 20-person field, we'll take a crack.

Koepka made short work of DeChambeau during their match over the Thanksgiving holiday, so maybe we'll get a different Brooks this time around, where these exhibitions are the new majors and he just rolls. At that price, I'll pay to see if he shows up ready to go.

Bet Justin Rose & Brooks Koepka at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.

Viktor Hovland over Henrik Stenson (-220)

Rob Bolton: The Hero World Challenge (and Tiger) hosts only 20 golfers, so the boards reflect plays that resemble promotional offers. No joke! With lines no longer than (-240) at FanDuel for a top 10 (i.e., top-half finish) by Rory McIlroy or Collin Morikawa, risking that value for $100 never has been as worth it.

I could go all day. Because of the limited field and no cut, there is variety not often available.

For example, BetMGM has a line on every golfer titled, “Top 4 after 1st round.” That’s fun. BetMGM and DraftKings also have lines that include two golfers to win. DK is giving +350 on “Morikawa or Thomas to Win.” Love it.

The moral of the matter: I’m elated that all of the boards are open for business at a time when it’d be understandable if they were closed for the holidays. Many lines are gifts, including Hovland over Stenson, even though the Swede is the defending champion here.

Two years is a long time, and it’s a long time since Stenson, now 45 years of age, prevailed at Albany. Just remember to multiple the investment on the head-to-head before pouring a pre-celebratory glass of egg nog.

Xander Schauffele (+1200)

Landon Silinsky: So you’re telling me we can get the no-cut king at the sixth shortest price on the board in a 20-man field?

I am not sure why he is priced below the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth or even Viktor Hovland for that matter, but we need to take full advantage here. Let us not forget the X-man won gold at the Olympics in a short field, no-cut event just three short months ago. There are truly no blemishes in his game as he’s both accurate and long off the tee, great with his long irons and silky smooth around the greens.

Xander can roll out of bed and win anywhere, anytime and this seems like the exact setup where he’d pick up his fifth career PGA TOUR victory. Having seen the course twice now, I fully expect the San Diego native to go well this week.

Sam Burns (+1600)

Bryan Berryman: Burns has been on an incredible run through the swing season, with top-10 finishes in three of his last four starts, including a win at Sanderson Farms in early October. He’s on the cusp of becoming one of the elite players on tour, if he isn’t one already. Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach, fifth Off-the-Tee and fourth in Putting in this stacked field.

He’s a great all around player who should thrive on the resort style course this week. I like the value here as the 10th player listed on the board.

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