2024 Farmers Insurance Open Picks: Expert Picks for Xander Schauffele, Austin Eckroat & More

2024 Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Find everything you need to know about the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open Picks in Jason Sobel's weekly PGA Tour mega guide below.

Here’s your annual reminder in advance of this week’s Farmers Insurance Open:

Once again, the tournament will start on Wednesday.

For the last few years, there have invariably been those planning to invest in this PGA Tour event who walked by a TV on Wednesday afternoon and thought, “Must be a re-air of last year’s tournament” or saw reserved DFS lineups stacked up in last place and assumed, “They must’ve made a mistake.”

That’s not the only difference between this one and the first three events of the year.

At Kapalua, everybody in the field was booming topography-assisted 400-yard drives; at Waialae, things felt much more claustrophobic; and in Palm Springs, it largely became a contest of who could make the most birdie putts.

At Torrey Pines, though, we should be looking for brawny ball-strikers. Think of it this way: If every player was on the practice range smashing four-iron into the cool, heavy, coastal air, which ones would appear the most impressive? Not that wedge game and putting aren’t important – they always are – but I want to identify and invest in the flushers this week.

After three straight longshot winners, the trend could halt in a big way at this one, as I’ll start my selections with the pre-tourney favorite.

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2024 Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Xander Schauffele (+900)

Players often consider their hometown events to be a proverbial “fifth major,” and that’s the case with Xander Schauffele here, as he grew up not too far from Torrey Pines. While some might’ve predicted immediate success for him at this event, he instead struggled early and missed the cut in his first three starts.

“I don't know,” he said before his fourth appearance in 2019, when trying to assess why he hadn’t fared better. “If I knew, I wouldn't have missed all these cuts… Whenever I play in front of fans and friends, I always want to do that little extra. So if I'm playing poorly, it will piss me off a little more than if I'm in New York or somewhere way away from home. There's added pressure just to perform better.”

He finished T25 that week but again missed the cut in 2020, as those struggles on a venue which should fit him quickly grew into a pattern. Schauffele turned things around in 2021, though, finishing in a share of second place. He then added results of T34 and T13 over the past two years, which is enough to have us believing that whatever bad mojo was hindering the local guy early should be behind him now.

Perhaps moving to Las Vegas a few years ago helped alleviate some of that pressure. In any case, he’s fresh off a T3 at The American Express where the ball-striking was fine and the putter got hot. After victories from Chris Kirk, Grayson Murray and Nick Dunlap, I can understand anyone’s reluctance to play someone near the top of the board, let alone a 9/1 favorite.

However, it just might take a big name to break this string, and Schauffele is trending in the right direction, both recently and at this event. If you prefer to wait a round or two and see if that 9/1 number drifts to, say, 15/1 or bigger without him being too far back, I don’t dislike that idea whatsoever.

Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Austin Eckroat (+15000)

Look, if you skipped right past the winner with short odds section and came straight to this one seeking a longshot, I suppose I don’t blame you. In last week’s preview, I wrote about the public buying up more lottery tickets after the first two results of the year; that strategy is only going to gain momentum after Dunlap’s win.

There are plenty of intriguing triple-digit options for this tournament, though each has some fallibilities – hey, that’s why they have triple-digit odds. My favorite amongst these longshots is Austin Eckroat, who missed the cut here last year but has a T42 and T25 to his name over the past two weeks and leads the PGA Tour in Total Driving.

Since I expect longshot outrights to be a popular play this week, here are a half-dozen more options, each of whom will be listed in sections below, as well: Taylor Pendrith (+8000), Thomas Detry (+9000), Kevin Yu (+11000), Sam Stevens (+20000), Chan Kim (+30000) and Chris Gotterup (+30000).

2024 Farmers Insurance Open One & Done Picks

Join my $25/entry OAD contest on Splash Sports starting at the Farmers Insurance Open here.

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Jason Day (+2500)

This opening number is simply too short to get me excited for an outright play, but the very reason it’s so short – his success at Torrey Pines – is the reason why he makes for an obvious OAD selection this week. In 14 career starts, he not only has two victories (2015, 2018), but Day also has a runner-up, a third-place finish and a total of seven top 10s, which means he’s reached that level in half of his appearances.

Results of T7 last year and T3 the previous year should render him one of the more popular selections, though for good reason.

Taylor Pendrith (+8000)

Though he missed the cut last week, Taylor Pendrith finished T10 at the Sony Open on a course which suits his game worse than this one, and he now owns four top-15 results in his last six starts. The Canadian fits the profile of what we’re seeking this week.

Even if you want to go a bit chalkier with your OAD selection, he makes for a strong prop/DFS play.

Kevin Yu (+11000)

A statistical sensation last season, Kevin Yu proved he’s the quintessential tee-to-green ball-striker who just needs an above-average short-game/putting performance to post a result. That’s exactly what happened last week, as Yu bounced back from missed cuts in seven of his last nine starts to finish T3.

This selection might feel like a feeble chase of that performance, but I’d rather view it as a player hitting his stride just in time to play a venue that suits his game as well as perhaps any on the schedule.

2024 Farmers Insurance Open Placement Bets

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Tony Finau (+550 for Top-five Finish)

This marks the first time in close to a decade that I don’t have Tony Finau as my pick to win at Torrey Pines — which probably means you should hammer the Finau outright play. I’ll still likely have an investment there, but it’s not like I’m moving him too far down the list as a top-five play. In nine career starts, he’s yet to cash an outright ticket, but he has claimed a pair of top fives and five top 10s, including three of the past four years.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Keegan Bradley (+330 for Top-10 Finish)

What we’re so often seeking in the prognostication business is some positive intersection between recent form and course history. Here’s what Keegan Bradley has going for him in those two departments: The last time he played, Bradley finished T2, losing in a playoff at the Sony, while the last time he played at Torrey, he finished solo second behind Max Homa.

Sure, there are plenty of other variables to take into account, but just as a player can attempt to read something more into a putt that’s dead straight, sometimes we have to look at this intersection and simply trust what we know.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Thomas Detry (+330 for Top-20 Finish)

With nine top-three career results on the DP World Tour and one on the PGA Tour, but no wins on either, Thomas Detry is a player who should break through as a ceiling play at some point, however his current value rests more as a floor selection. I like his skillset for this one, as he was just one stroke out of the top 20 entering last year’s final round, only to fall to T37 with a 76 on Sunday.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Sam Stevens (+330 for Top-30 Finish)

Speaking of last year, Sam Stevens opened with a 66 on the South Course, parlaying that hot start into a T13 result. While he’s struggled to inch his way into the top 30 recently – a T24 at the Sony remains his only top 30 in his last nine starts – I’ll buy low on some good vibes in his return here.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Chris Gotterup (+230 for Top-40 Finish)

Speaking with those who spent time covering the Korn Ferry Tour last year, there’s a consensus that Chris Gotterup might own as much upside as anyone who received the PGA Tour promotion, as evidenced by top-25 results in nine of his last 13 starts to close the season. It hasn’t gone as well so far in his rookie campaign in the big leagues, having missed both cuts, but again, I’ll conservatively buy low on a player with tons of potential.

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2024 Farmers Insurance Open DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Ludvig Aberg

I have no idea if seeing the entire golf world become giddy over Nick Dunlap as the game’s Next Big Thing will motivate Ludvig Aberg to remind us otherwise, but I do know this: It can’t hurt. With three rounds on the massive Torrey South this week, long-iron play will be a necessity.

Last season, Aberg made birdie or better on a remarkable 45.93 percent of his shots from at least 200 yards, nearly five percentage points better than Rory McIlroy, who ranked second on the list. After last year’s summer/fall brilliance, it’s been a slow start for Aberg, but this could be the perfect spot for him to get it going again.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Keith Mitchell

What, like you really thought I was going to leave Keith Mitchell out of this week’s preview after a final-round 62 to jump up last week’s leaderboard?

His record here is horrendous – a T63 and four MCs in five career starts – but let’s hope that just keeps ownership low, as he could be starting to hit his stride.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Chan Kim

As a 33-year-old rookie, Chan Kim reminds me a bit of Eric Cole – a first-year PGA Tour member who plays like he doesn’t have any time to lose and already owns a ton of experience. In fact, Kim owns more experience than a lot of PGA Tour veterans, having played in a dozen major championships already. Following last week’s T14, this should be another great spot for him.

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2024 Farmers Insurance Open Misc. Picks

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Sahith Theegala

Once again, FRL odds will be split between multiple courses – and once again, I’m writing this preview before tee times have been released. Last year, Sahith Theegala opened with a 66 on the North Course, and while I’d favor him for FRL starting on that track again, I don’t mind if he starts on the South rotation, either.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Taylor Moore (+11000)

Last year, Taylor Moore won the Valspar Championship from 50/1 in a field that was arguably more impressive than this one, so 110/1 in the outright marketplace doesn’t seem like a play without value. Even so, I like him better as a head-to-head matchup against similarly priced players without the similar offensive firepower, as Moore averaged 307 off the tee last year. Aaron Rai, Ryo Hisatsune and Ben Griffin could fill those spots.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Sungjae Im (+2200), Min Woo Lee (+2200), Adrian Meronk (+4500), Nicolai Hojgaard (+5000), Adam Schenk (+10000), Sam Ryder (+11000), Scott Stallings (+15000), Will Gordon (+25000), Lee Hodges (+30000)