2024 The American Express Picks: Expert Bets for Taylor Montgomery, Beau Hossler & More

2024 The American Express Picks

Here's everything you need to know about 2024The American Express Picks— our expert mega guide and betting preview for the third event of the PGA Tour season.

A few patterns developed during the first two events of this PGA Tour season.

The first is that each winner – Chris Kirk at The Sentry and Grayson Murray at the Sony Open – owns a backstory rife with redemption, both having battled alcoholism and depression earlier in their professional careers.

The second is that each was a massive longshot entering his respective victory.

Odds for those players toward the bottom of the board can vary greatly between books, but golfodds.com lists Kirk as being a 200/1 pre-tournament outright and Murray at 400/1.

All of which should lead to another pattern at this week’s American Express and beyond.

Expect the public to collectively chase these longshots by trying to cash the next lottery ticket – not that it works that way, of course.

I can appreciate a “things always happen in threes” idea or a more tactful “the PGA Tour is more wide open these days” approach, but neither of the previous two outcomes should serve as a predictor for this week’s result.

In fact, if you’re playing the percentages, logic might suggest that there’s less of a chance of yet another longshot winner, but again, there’s zero connection from one event to the next, other than perhaps a few more sleepers feeling a bit more emboldened.

If we’re to have a third consecutive triple-digit champion, he’ll need to defeat a surprisingly stellar field in Palm Springs that includes Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Tom Kim, Will Zalatoris, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Min Woo Lee, Jason Day and more.

Instead, I’ll start my selections with a few players who are priced somewhere in between those aforementioned stars and our two most recent winners.

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2024 The American Express Picks

The American Express Outright Picks

Taylor Montgomery (+6000)

As you’re about to realize, my outright winner with short odds doesn’t have odds very short and my outright winner with long odds doesn’t have odds very long, but I do believe this tournament represents a nice opportunity to largely fade the top of the board, based more on the motivation levels of those big-name players and less on the longshot winners of the past two weeks.

One year ago, Taylor Montgomery was in the midst of a dream start to his rookie season that included a solo fifth-place finish at this event. His season didn’t end the way it started, as Montgomery struggled with his irons throughout the summer and fall months, but there’s reason for optimism moving forward.

At the Sony Open last week, he ranked second in SG: Approach and was third in that category for the final round alone. For a guy who’s proven to be a very strong putter, we could be catching this combo at just the perfect time. This is hardly one of those no-doubt-about-it selections, but starting the card with a player at 60/1 should enable us to add more names to the outright portfolio, which is exactly how I’ll be attacking this tournament.

Beau Hossler (+8000)

This might not be a longshot of the Chris Kirk/Grayson Murray variety, but I’m going to chase value this week, and Beau Hossler owns plenty at a tourney where most will be focused on the bigger names. There are some definitive pros and cons here, though.

The latter first: Considering more than half of this week’s field competed at either Kapalua or Waialae, there’s reason to limit your investments to those who aren’t coming in cold, like Hossler.

He also doesn’t own much of a record to speak of at this one, finishing T20 in his first start but following with MC-MC-MC-50^th. If you can stomach that, though, there’s plenty of reason for optimism. He closed last year’s campaign with top-30 results in his last six starts and nine of his final 10, including a pair of top 10s in his last three, all of which suggests he’s on the verge of a long-awaited first victory.

In an event where it always takes something in the mid-20s under par to win, Hossler’s dangerous driver/putter combo should set him up for repeated birdie chances, if those irons can cooperate.

Then there’s the number itself. Again, with so many of the big names sitting at shorter odds, yet with potentially lowered motivation in a non-signature event in the middle of January, there’s some rationale behind digging a little deeper, even if you’re not digging Kirk/Murray deep.

Starting your outright card with a few golfers at bigger prices should allow you to add a few more names, so don’t be afraid to sprinkle in some of those I’ve listed below.

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2024 The American Express One-and-Done Picks

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

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Sungjae Im (+2200)

One of the things I love about OADs is that they can be all things to all people. I have friends who dive into a pool every year with only rudimentary golf knowledge but pick a player each week and follow along with their progress. Then there are those on the other end of the spectrum who will strategize, employing game theory to help create their selections.

Much like in DFS, there’s value in trying to identify the low-owned players and going contrarian. Perhaps the easiest way to zig when everyone else zags is to avoid the biggest stars at the most important events but target the top of the board on weeks such as this one. I might be a little skittish to use Scottie Scheffler here, but some eye-catching candidates are right behind him.

Sungjae Im has played this tournament five times and finished between 10^th and 18^th in each of those starts. While that might suggest more floor than ceiling, he’s talented enough to win on any given week – and especially at one where he’s already seen some success.

Cameron Champ (+15000)

During the season’s first two weeks, I offered up Corey Conners for a pair of outright selections – as much for his long-term value as his short-term potential. My theory was that I think Conners is due for a big-time campaign, and I didn’t want to be on the outside looking in if it happened in the early going (Narrator: It didn’t happen.).

I feel the same way about Cameron Champ, to an extent. I’m bullish on him this year, so I don’t want to miss out when he proves me right. On courses where he can often swing away off the tee and make plenty of birdies, this makes some sense. If you don’t want to stomach the three-time winner for OADs, he makes for an intriguing addition to the outright card at 150/1.

2024 The American Express Placement Bets

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Keith Mitchell (+1600 for Top-five Finish)

Longtime readers of my previews might recall that I’ve got an admitted Keith Mitchell blind spot. From the analytics to the ol’ eye test, he checks so many of the right boxes to become a big-time, top-25 type of player, though the results have left us wanting more over the past year.

Last week, he finished T30 on a golf course which shouldn’t accentuate his massive advantage off the tee, but driver should be more of a weapon at this one, even on a trio of sub-7,200-yard courses.

Much like with Hossler, his iron game has left plenty to be desired, but also like Hossler, he is a player with terrific upside on any given week.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Tony Finau (+350 for Top-10 Finish)

One of the things I love about writing this column each week is the idea that it has to serve so many different types of consumers – from those simply seeking an OAD suggestion to those needing advice for DFS lineups to those firing bets. Of those bettors, every one of you is different. I want to give ideas to those seeking a few outright lottery tickets, but I similarly want to offer some options to those who just want a little ROI.

All of which should help explain why/how I’ve listed some players with bigger numbers, but I’m going chalkier here with Tony Finau for a top-10 finish, which isn’t as high-risk/high-reward as most of the other picks, but it might be more helpful for those looking for less risk.

Finau only has one top-10 finish in six career starts at The American Express, but his last four also include a T14 and a T16, so he’s certainly been within shouting distance on a few other occasions. I liked him at The Sentry a few weeks ago, and while his putter wasn’t much improved from late last year, there were some signs that he should be trending upward soon.

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Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Billy Horschel (+320 for Top-20 Finish)

In a scattered seven starts at this one, Billy Horschel owns just a single top-20 finish – and that was way back in 2013. I get the sense that he’s entering 2024, however, with some renewed vigor. Returning to a tourney that isn’t always on his schedule suggests some immediacy, in that he wants to step on the gas pedal early and quite possibly thinks his game is ready to start peaking.

His T18 last week at the Sony Open included decent numbers across the board, though there's room for improvement. I’ll play him for a top 20, but a top 10 or better isn’t out of the question.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Austin Eckroat (+250 for Top-30 Finish)

Ascending scores of 65-66-69-72 suggest Austin Eckroat was going in the wrong direction last week as he turned a potential title contention into a T42 result. His weekend numbers alone might’ve dissuaded me from listing him higher in this preview, though it kept his outright number from getting shorter and makes him interesting at 130/1.

For the purposes of this piece, though, I’ll play a more conservative top-30 bet on a young player with a ton of obvious talent.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Alejandro Tosti (+210 for Top-40 Finish)

Word from the Korn Ferry Tour circuit last year was that Alejandro Tosti might have, uh, a little bit of a temper… but he’s also a tremendously talented ball-striker.

He was on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show “Hitting the Green” last week and spoke about how he often makes his own Argentinian empanadas while on the road and hands them out to officials and volunteers at events. (And yes, I made him promise to save some for me, too.)

Those last few potentially contradictory sentences might suggest that he’s a complicated dude, but all of that aside, I like buying low on those tee-to-green abilities early in his rookie campaign. After a T70 last week, I’ll take him to improve to a top-40 finish at this one.

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2024 The American Express DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Patrick Cantlay

It isn’t often that Scottie Scheffler is in the field and isn’t the automatic Bingo Square option, but I’d rather save a few bucks in salary and reach for Patrick Cantlay instead. In his last four starts here, Cantlay owns three top-10 finishes, including a runner-up three years ago. He played well enough at Kapalua, finishing T12, to not scare us off at all, without conversely becoming too chalky. If you’re spending up, Cantlay makes a ton of sense.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Adam Hadwin, Taylor Pendrith, Nick Taylor

I’m being admittedly cheeky by listing this triumvirate of Canadians together, but the bundling is really just based on indecision, as there’s reason to like each of them this week.

Adam Hadwin is a noted desert golfer; I’ve asked him about this success, and he suggests that his early-career roots might have prepped him for this style of golf.

Taylor Pendrith is fresh off a top-10 finish last week, and so is reigning RBC Canadian Open champion and now-favorite son Nick Taylor, who’s yet to bring his best stuff to this tournament.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Joseph Bramlett

Before creating your DFS lineups this week, it’s important to remember that all players will play at least 54 holes in this three-course rotation, which puts less of an onus on having 6-for-6 make the cut. Don’t get me wrong: It’s always advantageous to be getting those Sunday scores, but there’s more reason to perhaps top-load this week and try to hit on a low-cost, low-owned player.

I don’t mind taking a shot on Joseph Bramlett, who returned last week after missing six months due to injury and still made the Sony Open cut. For a golfer who ranked 74^th in Birdie Average last season and tends to do his best work on the West Coast, he’s worth a look.

2024 The American Express Misc. Picks

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Garrick Higgo (TBD Odds for FRL)

As usual, I’m writing this preview before tee times have been released – and as usual, your books should divide up FRL odds between those playing each of the three courses this week. (If they don’t, you should target those playing La Quinta, which is where Davis Thompson took the opening-round lead with a 62 last year.)

Still flying blind a bit, I’ll recommend Garrick Higgo – wherever he’s playing – as a guy who can make birdies in bunches and closed with a 63 last year to finish in a share of 11^th place.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Min Woo Lee (+2800)

I debated for a while about exactly where I wanted to list Min Woo Lee for this preview and ultimately decided that he might be best served as a head-to-head play. That doesn’t mean you can’t also bet him outright or in props or use him in DFS or OADs, and it similarly doesn’t mean I’m just burying his name at the bottom of this write-up.

The wildly talented Min Woo can win anyplace, anytime, but I think there are some matchup options – Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Wyndham Clark – for which the Aussie holds a bit of an advantage.

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Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Alex Noren (+6500), Lee Hodges (+15000), Sam Ryder (+15000), Will Gordon (+18000), Maverick McNealy (+20000), Troy Merritt (+35000), Norman Xiong (+35000), Harrison Endycott (+40000)