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Ladies and gentlemen, we are back. The PGA TOUR took a one-week hiatus after the Baycurrent Championship, but we are back this week for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. While I hate that we don't have Shot Tracker for this event, I love that we have a cut and that all types of golfers can contend here.
I have my eye on a few long-shot bets. Let's have ourselves a week.
Let's take a look at my Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's tournament at Port Royal Golf Course. Make sure to download the Action Network App for more picks and analysis!
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Preview
Port Royal Golf Course is a Par 71 that measures only 6,828 yards. This is one of the shortest courses on the PGA TOUR and one of the few courses where the driver is not much of a weapon. The course is short, there's a big penalty for big misses, and many of the holes require less than driver.
This might be the only course where Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Driving Distance, and Driving Accuracy are all well below TOUR average in terms of importance. The name of the game is to get the ball in play.
With the driver being devalued here, everything else is magnified. Approach play is always king, but I'm also taking a long look at Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and Strokes Gained: Putting.
The difficulty of the course hinges on the weather, as the course is located on an island and exposed to the elements. The current forecast calls for 20+ MPH sustained winds for three of the four days of the event. In theory, this will make greens more difficult to hit, and that will make scrambling even more important.
Even though there's not a strong course fit (we've seen all types of golfers contend here), I'm basically looking at everything except driving and sprinkling in some Bogey Avoidance.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Predictions, Picks
For the picks this week, I have a mix of outrights, top 10s, and top 20s. I simulated the event 20,000 times and compared those results to current market odds. The results are below:
Benjamin James to Win (+1100 — bet365)
I didn't expect my model to like James at +1100 in an event that he's never played, but I was wrong. My model gives him an 11% chance to win this week, while the market has him priced at 8-9%.
Over the last 6 months, he’s top 15 in this field in all four of the strokes gained categories. He’s also 1st in my Expected Hole Performance metric. Unlike a lot of the up-and-comers these days, he’s actually extremely accurate off the tee, which should really come in handy on this course.
He basically won everything imaginable in college, and he’s racked up 3 straight top 5 finishes on TOUR. It’s only a matter of time before he gets his first win, and I want to be there when it happens.
Ben Kohles to Win (+3700 — DraftKings) / Top 10 (+355 — DraftKings)
If you have been reading my betting previews, you are likely aware of my affinity for Mr. Kohles. He has been as consistent as anyone on TOUR over the last 6 months. During that stretch, he's finished in the top 30 in 14 of 15 events with a win and 2 more top 10 finishes.
He's accurate off the tee and the best iron player in the field (1st in Strokes Gained: Approach over any timeframe you want to look at). He's also got a solid short game, which will be needed with some wind in the forecast.
He doesn't have any super high finishes here, but he's never missed a cut at this event. He's also never had this type of incoming form.
Zac Blair to Win (+4700 — DraftKings) / Top 10 (+425 — DraftKings)
Blair struggles to contend on a lot of PGA TOUR courses because he's one of the shortest drivers of the ball in professional golf. The time to bet him is on these shorter courses where distance isn't a prerequisite for success.
At Port Royal Golf Course, driving is the least important of the four strokes gained categories, which should be music to Blair's ears.
He's an elite iron player, a good scrambler, and a good putter. He's coming off back-to-back top 25 finishes on TOUR, and he finished T9 at this event last year.
Chan Kim Top 10 (+900 — FanDuel) / Top 20 (+380 — FanDuel)
My model sees value in Kim as an outright bet this week, but I'm going to settle for top 10 and top 20 bets. He’s above the field average in all four of the strokes gained categories, and he’s top 20 in the field over the last 6 months in Birdie or Better % and Bogey Avoidance.
He finished T28 in his last start on TOUR and T22 in his last appearance at this event. He has a nice mix of course fit, course history, and recent form.
Paul Peterson Top 20 (+500 — FanDuel)
Peterson is essentially a poor man’s Zac Blair. Now, you might be thinking, why would I want to bet on a worse version of Zac Blair? I’ll tell you why… Peterson is top 15 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green.
This is not a course where elite driving is a huge advantage. You have to keep the ball in play here, but a lot of these holes don’t even require you to hit driver.
Peterson is excellent at the two statistics that I care about the most this week. He's +500 to finish in the top 20 of a field of 120 golfers. I like his chances.
Good luck this week!
