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2022 Charles Schwab Challenge: 5 Expert Picks for Tony Finau, Justin Rose, More

2022 Charles Schwab Challenge: 5 Expert Picks for Tony Finau, Justin Rose, More article feature image
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Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Finau.

  • The PGA TOUR makes its annual stop at Colonial Country Club this week for the 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge.
  • Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas are favored, followed by Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland.
  • Joshua Perry breaks down his five outright picks for this week below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge odds via PointsBet

2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

Golfer Odds
Jordan Spieth +900
Justin Thomas +1200
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Collin Morikawa +1800
Viktor Hovland +2200
Will Zalatoris +2200
Abraham Ancer +2800
Max Homa +2800
Sam Burns +2800
Tommy Fleetwood +3000
Daniel Berger +3300
Sungjae Im +3300
Tony Finau +3300
Webb Simpson +3300
Talor Gooch +3500
Billy Horschel +4000
Brian Harman +4000
Chris Kirk +4000
Davis Riley +4000
Justin Rose +4000
Kevin Na +4000
Mito Guillermo Pereira +4000
Gary Woodland +5000
Harold Varner III +5000
Jason Kokrak +5000
Sebastian Munoz +5000
Maverick McNealy +6000
Tom Hoge +6000
Cameron Tringale +7000
Cheng-Tsung Pan +7000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +7000
Ryan Palmer +7000
Patrick Reed +8000
Erik Van Rooyen +9000
Lucas Herbert +9000
Russell Knox +9000
Troy Merritt +9000
Aaron Rai +10000
Adam Long +10000
Cameron Davis +10000
David Lipsky +10000
Denny McCarthy +10000
Doug Ghim +10000
Ian Poulter +10000
Joel Dahmen +10000
Kevin Kisner +10000
Kevin Streelman +10000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +10000
Matthew NeSmith +10000
Patton Kizzire +10000
Rickie Fowler +10000
Stewart Cink +10000
Brandon Wu +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
J. J. Spaun +12500
JT Poston +12500
Lucas Glover +12500
Nate Lashley +12500
Patrick Rodgers +12500
Sahith Theegala +12500
Alex Smalley +15000
Austin Smotherman +15000
Emiliano Grillo +15000
James Hahn +15000
Kurt Kitayama +15000
Mark Hubbard +15000
Matt Jones +15000
Matthias Schwab +15000
Min Woo Lee +15000
Nick Taylor +15000
Pat Perez +15000
Peter Malnati +15000
Richard Bland +15000
Rory Sabbatini +15000
Scott Stallings +15000
Stephan Jaeger +15000
Taylor Moore +15000
Adam Schenk +20000
Beau Hossler +20000
Carlos Ortiz +20000
Chad Ramey +20000
Chez Reavie +20000
Danny Lee +20000
Gresyon Sigg +20000
Scott Piercy +20000
Wyndham Clark +20000
Zach Johnson +20000
Adam Svensson +25000
Andrew D. Putnam +25000
Brandt Snedeker +25000
Charley Hoffman +25000
Doc Redman +25000
Garrick Higgo +25000
Kramer Hickok +25000
Luke Donald +25000
Michael Thompson +25000
Sam Ryder +25000
John Huh +25000
Brian Stuard +30000
Harry Higgs +30000
Lee Hodges +30000
Robert Streb +30000
Trey Mullinax +30000
Tyler Duncan +30000
Vincent Whaley +30000
Jason Dufner +30000
Hayden Buckley +35000
Paul Barjon +35000
Kevin Tway +40000
Bill Haas +50000
Camilo Villegas +50000
Erik Compton +50000
James Piot +50000
John Pak +50000
Martin Trainer +50000
Max McGreevy +50000
Nick Watney +50000
Ryan Brehm +50000
Tyler Strafaci +50000
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Another major is in the books, and this time, it was another Matt Fitzpatrick experience, where he was in the picture but never really felt like he would play a part in the outcome.

Instead, it looked like a battle of the Korn Ferry Tour kids, but much like the events on that tour, chaos broke out over the final few holes. Justin Thomas capitalized on the inexperience of his competition to win a second major.

Now we move on from Southern Hills to another Perry Maxwell design at Colonial for the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Usually the week following a grueling major is a chance to fade the top names who had to grind through a four-day slog; however, there’s a decent chance the form will carry over going to a course by the same designer.

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The Course

Colonial has played host to the event since 1946. It’s a par 70 that measures around 7,200 yards. If the wind picks up, it can play fairly difficult. If it’s calm, we’ll probably see a winner near 20-under par.

This has never really been a bomber’s course. Jason Kokrak enters as the defending champ. Daniel Berger, Kevin Na, Kevin Kisner and Jordan Spieth have wins on their resume here, as well.

Colonial usually is more of a precision course, where guys can find the fairway and let their irons and short game go work.

The Favorites

Thomas and Scottie Scheffler open at the top between +1000 and +1200, depending on where you look.

Of the two, Thomas would probably be the better fit to play well given his edge with the irons, but it would come down to how much of a hangover he’s suffering from the PGA Championship.

Last week, Scheffler was poor driving the ball and had bad luck with the weather. The irons were in good shape, though. However, in two starts, he hasn’t finished better than 55th here.

Spieth is next in line at around +1400, and he should probably be the favorite given his track record here — he has a win and three 2nd-place finishes. Combine that with his recent form — he has a win at Harbour Town and finished runner-up at the Byron Nelson — and he’s the most likely threat at the top of the board to actually win this week.

Collin Morikawa is right behind Spieth at +1600. He’s another good fit here and lost in a playoff two years ago. He was another weather draw casualty last week, making the cut but never really digging out of his hole.

He’s been off quite a bit with his short game lately, and his ball striking numbers, while solid, haven’t been able to overcome that weakness in recent weeks.

Viktor Hovland, Will Zalatoris and Max Homa make up the +2000s range.

Zalatoris will be popular after a runner-up finish to Thomas at the PGA.

Homa has been on a good run, but hasn’t really shown up well here, missing cuts in two of three starts.

Hovland doesn’t appear to be the best fit for this course, since it has negated the importance of distance in the past and puts an added emphasis on scrambling with its small greens.

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The Mid-Tier

We’ll start here with Tony Finau at +4100 at FanDuel. Finau has not been his usual consistent self this season, but there have been signs of improvement overall.

Finau gained strokes across the board last week at the PGA. It was the first time he accomplished that since his win at the Northern Trust last year. He also shown glimpses of elite ball striking. He gained six strokes off the tee at the Wells Fargo a couple weeks ago and in Mexico, he gained eight strokes with his irons on his way to a second-place finish.

This has also been a spot where Finau has played well. He was runner-up to Kevin Na in 2019 and has made the cut in all six starts, with no result worse than 34th.

I’ll back Davis Riley again at +5000 at DraftKings. He’ll probably be popular again this week after gaining 11 strokes via ball striking in his PGA Championship debut (13th).

The Texas courses have been good to him so far in his rookie year, as well. He’s locked up tour status for next season with a run of four straight top-15s to go with the Valspar runner-up early in the year.

The only thing really left for him to do now is get a win. I’m usually betting him most weeks anyway, and won’t stop now since he’s in this kind of form.

We’ll also go with Sebastian Munoz at +6000. Munoz was third here a year ago and third two weeks ago at the Byron Nelson. He can play well here and has been playing well recently. He’s made the cut in every start for four month now, last missing one at the AmEx in late January.

Munoz has also gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight events. His putter can run hot and cold but prior to the PGA Championship, he seemed to get things figured out on the greens

I’ll also go to Justin Rose here at +6500. Rose is a past champion here in 2018 and has been inside the top 20 in three of his four starts. He’s also coming off of a good week at the PGA, where he finished 13th and gained five strokes with the irons.

This is a course that has catered more to veterans in the past, so if he can carry that form from from last week into Colonial, he could contend here again.

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The Longshots

This hasn’t really been a spot for unknown winners. It’s usually been veterans in the mid-tier or established stars (at the time) taking home the title.

My one play down from this range will be Lucas Glover at 160-1 on FanDuel. Glover had a great week with the irons at Southern Hills, gaining nearly eight strokes to finish 23rd.

He’s also finished inside the top 25 in his last two starts here, including 8th last year. He gained nearly 10 strokes combined during those tournaments, so it’s a course that fits his eye with the irons in recent years.

The Colonial Card

  • Tony Finau +4100 (.82 units)
  • Davis Riley +5000 (.66 units)
  • Sebastian Munoz +6000 (.55 units)
  • Justin Rose +6500 (.5 units)
  • Lucas Glover +16000 (.21 units)

Total Stake: 2.74 units

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