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The PGA Championship heads to Aronimink Golf Club outside Philadelphia this week.
This course is a precision-heavy par 70 that rewards iron play and accurate driving over raw distance. With 156 players in the field and a historically volatile major leaderboard, ownership inefficiencies are more pronounced here than at almost any other event on the calendar.
The picks below focus on where projected ownership and actual win probability diverge most sharply, which is often where the strongest pool leverage exists.
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Tier 1: The Scottie Scheffler Decision
Scottie Scheffler grades at 95 with a 15.4% win probability — nearly double that of Rory McIlroy and more than triple that of most of the field.
At Aronimink, where ball-striking precision defines leaderboards, his profile is as good a fit as you'll find. The grade is not in question.
The ownership cost is.
At a 37% projected pick share in a large pool, Scheffler is a shared outcome rather than a differentiator.
If he wins, a large portion of your pool likely advances with you. If he doesn't, you gain almost no leverage from the most important tier on the board.
Rory McIlroy (grade 83, 18% pick share) is the middle ground.
Jon Rahm (grade 80, 8% pick share, +1400) is a stronger ownership-adjusted play. His Masters disappointment has artificially deflated his popularity, but his iron play suits this layout.
Bryson DeChambeau (grade 77, 5% pick share, +1850) has two runner-up finishes at the PGA Championship and is still carrying surprisingly modest projected ownership. At 5% ownership, the asymmetric upside if he contends is significant.
Tier 2: Justin Rose is Mispriced
Justin Rose grades at 95 — the highest in Tier 2 — with an 11% win probability against just 8% pick share. At +4700 odds, his market price reflects an outside shot contender. His pool ownership does not.
Rose’s iron game is well-suited to Aronimink’s demands, and he leads the balanced, aggressive and contrarian pick sets. The gap between his grade and his popularity is one of the more straightforward value spots on the card.
Brooks Koepka (grade 94, 13% pick share) is the conservative anchor — his major championship record speaks for itself, and the grade supports the exposure.
Viktor Hovland (grade 87, 6% pick share) is the best low-owned alternative in the tier for entries building differentiation across multiple slots.
Patrick Cantlay (grade 70, 15% pick share) is the pick to avoid. He has the worst grade-to-ownership ratio in the tier, with no recent form to justify it.
Tier 3: The Ownership Discrepancy on Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth grades at 95 with an 11% win probability and 7% pick share. That combination — top grade, meaningful win probability and well-below-average ownership — is among the stronger leverage spots in this field.
Spieth’s game suits precision-first major setups, and +6300 puts him squarely in contender territory. Pool players are not pricing him that way.
Robert MacIntyre (grade 92, 8%) is the strongest balanced alternative, while Hideki Matsuyama (grade 90, 6%) and Shane Lowry (grade 87, 4%) offer additional value for entries prioritizing differentiation.
Nicolai Hojgaard (grade 70, 23% pick share) is the overconcentration risk in this tier. He has a high sentiment, but a low grade and no compelling data to close the gap.
Tier 4: 3 High-Grade Options Under 10% Ownership
Min Woo Lee carries a 37% pick share with a grade of 70. Kurt Kitayama grades at 95 with 10% pick share. Maverick McNealy grades at 95 with 8%. Ben Griffin grades at 94 with 7%.
The ownership gap between Lee and the rest of the tier is difficult to justify based on the grades alone.
Kitayama’s approach play is among the best in the field, and his game suits the demands of a course that rewards precision over power.
McNealy has been one of the more consistent ball-strikers on tour this season. Griffin is trending in the right direction across strokes gained metrics and represents genuine differentiation at 7% ownership.
Jason Day (grade 90, 6%) and Keegan Bradley (grade 88, 6%) add further separation for entries building away from the tier’s inflated chalk.
Akshay Bhatia (grade 79, 15%) is another name where popularity has outrun the grade.
Tier 5: Joaquin Niemann at the Top, Real Alternatives Below
Joaquin Niemann leads Tier 5 at a grade of 95 with a 12% pick share. He appears across the conservative, balanced and contrarian sets. The grade and win probability support the selection regardless of entry style.
Harris English (grade 92, 12%) has been in strong form recently, with approach play metrics ranking among the tour’s best over the past month.
David Puig (grade 92, 10%) carries a grade that has outpaced his ownership all season. He appears in the aggressive set for that reason.
Thomas Detry (grade 89, 10%) is the contrarian option for entries fully differentiating from Niemann. Jacob Bridgeman (grade 87, 10%) offers solid value deeper in the tier as well.
Tier 6: Gary Woodland's 4% Ownership is Hard to Ignore
Gary Woodland grades at 95 with just 4% pick share. He won the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach — a demanding accuracy-first major — and his profile translates well to what Aronimink will ask this week.
He leads the conservative and balanced pick sets and is the top grade in the tier at near-minimum ownership.
Michael Thorbjornsen (grade 93, 3%) offers genuine ball-striking upside at minimal ownership. Harry Hall (grade 90, 3%) and Corey Conners (grade 88, 3%) round out the top-grade options.
Conners, in particular, has strong iron play metrics that are directly relevant to this layout.
Alex Smalley (grade 77, 21% pick share) is the ownership trap in this tier.
Tier 7: J.T. Poston the Value Play
J.T. Poston grades at 95 with 7% pick share. His win at Harbour Town earlier this season — a precision-first, accuracy-dependent layout — is a reasonable proxy for Aronimink’s demands.
His ball-striking metrics have been among the tour’s best in recent weeks. The ownership-adjusted profile stands out.
Jordan L. Smith (grade 92, 9%) brings a controlled game style that holds up at demanding setups.
Daniel Berger (grade 86, 12%) is a former tour winner with the experience to compete at a major.
Wyndham Clark (grade 83, 13%) is the fade, with ownership running ahead of grade.
Tier 8: Grade and Separation
Bud Cauley (grade 89, 2% pick share) is the highest-graded option in Tier 8 and one of the more overlooked names in the pool. His iron play is legitimate, and virtually nobody is picking him.
Angel Ayora Fanegas (grade 73, 1%) is the maximum-differentiation play, appearing in both the aggressive and contrarian sets at near-zero ownership.
Dustin Johnson (grade 76, 2%) has faded from pool player consciousness due to his LIV schedule, but his history at precision-demanding courses is worth noting at this ownership level.
The data above reflects larger pool trends. See picks customized to your exact pool size, format and scoring structure at PoolGenius.
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