2024 Players Championship Picks: Expert Bets for Will Zalatoris & More

2024 Players Championship Picks

If you watched this past weekend’s telecasts of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you undoubtedly noticed the in-round promos touting the upcoming Players Championship as “the best field in golf.”

This is a characterization long employed in regard to the PGA Tour’s flagship event, one which will continue to be used throughout this week’s 50th anniversary celebration.

There’s just one little problem: It isn’t true anymore.

Some of the starpower which previously heightened discussions of this tournament’s fifth major status — either as an official designation or unofficial – remains far away from Ponte Vedra Beach headquarters this week, essentially invalidating the aforementioned claim about the field.

The four major championships will include the likes of Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Cameron Smith, creating a noticeably stronger entry list than The Players or any other event that will be played this year.

(It similarly spotlights the silliness of Talor Gooch’s recent comments, which insisted the winner of the year’s first major should be saddled with an asterisk. If anything, the opposite is true, as it can be argued the majors are the only tournaments unburdened by golf’s current fractured infrastructure.)

The main point here is that the identity of The Players remains a Catch-22 wrapped in a conundrum masquerading as a certitude. The PGA Tour very obviously doesn’t want to issue exemptions to LIV Golf regulars, but its promotion of this event as the best field will continue to ring hollow without them.

None of which is to suggest the PGA Tour should’ve acquiesced to qualified LIV players and allowed them into the field, but it’s impossible to argue that this resistance hasn’t massively impacted the overall quality of this tournament over the past few years.

For the pessimistic amongst us, this week symbolizes the continuing rift in the game’s upper level – a reminder that not only are the best players not competing against the best players at some of the biggest tournaments anymore (like this one), but the sides are so ignorant of the situation that a previously inarguable line such as “the best field in golf” can still be repeated without even a sense of regret or irony.

Alright, onto the players who are competing in The Players, as none of the above is to hint that this field isn’t still very good, nor should it take away from the familiarity of this venue or the prestige of winning such a title.

For years, I’ve maintained that this tournament is the year’s toughest to prognosticate. Over the past two decades, we’ve witnessed winners in the form of long hitters, short hitters, exemplary iron players, sublime putters, old guys, young guys, superstars and rookies.

The mark of a great host course is one that doesn’t lend itself to the success of just one specific type of player, and TPC Sawgrass checks every box available.

I’ll still give a little more of a nod toward those who are the best second-shot golfers, which is reflected in my selections for this week. Let’s get right to ‘em.

2024 Players Championship Outright Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament at short odds

Will Zalatoris (+2700 | bet365)

My best advice for this week might be to hope Scottie Scheffler posts something close to an even-par opening round and his pre-tournament odds of +600 move to a more palatable number, so we can snatch him up in the live markets. I can’t in good conscience, though, recommend him at that opening price, so instead I’ll pivot to a player who at one point on the weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational appeared to be cruising to a title.

If you turned off the television on Saturday afternoon when Will Zalatoris held a five-stroke advantage and figured it was over, welcome to the wild world of professional golf, where even an elite talent like Willy Z. can go from 60 to 0 in a matter of minutes, slamming on the brakes and ultimately finishing in a share of fourth place, eight shots behind the winner.

Even so, his game looks verrrry close to winning soon, and whether that happens this week, four weeks from now at the Masters, or at a tournament like the U.S. Open, it might have as much to do with how Scheffler plays as it does Zalatoris. It’s asking a lot based on what we just witnessed, but a head-to-head win over the No. 1-ranked player just might be enough to beat everyone else, too.

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Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament at long odds

Billy Horschel (+15000 | FanDuel)

When we start delving into triple-digit odds for a longshot outright selection, we’re not seeking a player who should play well in a given tournament, but one who could triumph if he plays his best golf. In other terms, we’re reaching for a ceiling, not a floor.

As I started perusing the board at 100-1 and beyond, there were plenty of players who should play well at TPC Sawgrass – guys who own a recent run of results or some correlating statistics. I’ll admit there are others in this range who make for more appealing top-20/40 plays or DFS picks than Billy Horschel, but there are few who offer that swing-for-the-fences upside that he does.

That might sound outlandish for a player who owns one career top-25 result in 10 starts at The Players and hasn’t won in nearly two full years, but I’ve often looked at Horschel in much the same way I view Keegan Bradley, as each have won some big-time titles against top-level fields when they’ve had their best stuff.

If anything, Horschel’s lack of success at this tournament might have something to do with the fact that he’s wanted it too much, living nearby and practicing on the property. After a tie for ninth at the Cognizant Classic in his most recent start, I like the idea of playing Billy Ho at this price and taking a chance that he finally brings his best stuff to this tourney.

2024 Players Championship OAD Picks

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Max Homa (+2500)

Chances are, a good portion of your OAD peers have already used Max Homa, considering he usually plays his best golf during the West Coast Swing. While he was far from terrible, his three top 20s (all outside the top 10) in five starts didn’t quite live up to previous standards, but a T8 already on the Florida Swing and a T6 here last year could offer some value to those who still have Homa left as a selection.

Collin Morikawa (+3000) and Tommy Fleetwood (+3500)

I’m listing Collin Morikawa and Tommy Fleetwood together because their MCs last week – two of just 11 players who failed to reach the weekend – should keep them far off most radars. The reality is that a poor Friday round was the undoing of each player, and we shouldn’t read too much into it. In fact, a weekend off from brutally tough Bay Hill might not be the worst recipe for finding success at TPC Sawgrass.

Min Woo Lee (+5500)

Don’t be surprised if Min Woo Lee is a popular selection this week – not just for OADs, but across the board. He finished T6 in his debut at this tournament last year and is fresh off a final round at the API in which he ranked fifth from tee to green.

Nick Taylor (+15000)

Despite winning the title at a tournament with more eyeballs on it, literally, than any other, Nick Taylor remains golf’s most unassuming man – a courteous Canadian who can remove his golf hat and likely never get recognized in public.

None of that erases the fact that he’s playing the best golf of his life right now. Say what you will about the increasingly immaterial OWGR, but he’s up to a career-best 25^th in the ranking, thanks to the victory in Phoenix backed by a T12 at Bay Hill last week.

2024 Players Championship Placement Picks

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Scottie Scheffler (+140 for Top-five Finish)

As both the defending champion and last week’s winner, we’re essentially hoping for two separate lightning bolts to each strike twice — or two different roulette wheels to hit the same number back-to-back — if we play Scottie Scheffler this week, but of course the odds are better than each of those occurrences.

As noted above, I’ll be watching Scheffler’s number in the outright markets and will take a stab Friday/Saturday if the price is right. He is head and shoulders above his peers from tee to green right now, and with a putter that appears ready to cooperate, at least in the current honeymoon phase, it’s tough to envision him not being in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

The play here is for a top-five finish at regrettably short odds, but this should be a conservative bankroll play that allows you to get a little riskier with some other wagers this week.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Byeong Hun An (+600 for Top-10 Finish) and Cam Davis (+750 for Top-10 Finish)

Even though I offered up my rationale for a chalky Scheffler top-five play above, I still feel a little guilty for stating the obvious, so I’ll make it up to you with two top-10 selections in Ben An and Cam Davis, each of whom has enjoyed some nice moments already this year.

An owns five finishes of 21^st or better in seven starts, and while it might seem overly optimistic to believe he can win the PGA Tour’s flagship event for his first victory on this circuit, I’ll remind you that his lone DP World Tour title came at the BMW PGA Championship flagship event years ago, so a win here could provide some nice symmetry.

As for Davis, here are his results to start last year: 32^nd-MC-MC-MC-MC-MC-6^th. Sure, he was coming off an extended illness to begin the campaign, but it should be noted that the last of those results came at The Players, where he was third before a final-round 74. I love finding the outliers of players who play their best golf at certain courses when they clearly haven’t been playing their best golf, which was the case for Davis here last year.

Each of these players makes for a nice top-10 selection, and at 80-1 and 110-1, respectively, don’t be afraid to sprinkle a little on their outrights.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Doug Ghim (+400 for Top-20 Finish)

Why am I listing Doug Ghim for a top-20 prop? Well, it might have a little something to do with him finishing inside the top 20 every week. Ghim now has four consecutive top-20 results, including a T16 two weeks ago at PGA National. Add to that a T6 at this event two years ago and a current ranking of 12^th in SG: Approach, and Ghim makes a ton of sense for props, matchups and DFS.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Corey Conners (+140 for Top-30 Finish)

Without even trying, really, I’ve seemingly replaced my Keith Mitchell support/disappointment cycle with Corey Conners, who admittedly continues to receive a lot of love in these weekly previews for someone without a top-10 finish since last year’s playoffs.

That’s because it keeps getting better, his results inching closer while Scheffler’s turnaround with the putter provides hope for every ball-striker who can’t seem to get the damned ball into that stupid little hole in the ground. Last week’s 18^th-place finish at Bay Hill was classic Conners, as he ranked second in SG: Approach and 46^th in SG: Putting.

If nothing else, those numbers provide a solid floor, especially on a track like TPC Sawgrass, so I’ll go the ultra-conservative route and offer up Conners for a top-30 finish, though behind closed doors in the dark hours of Wednesday night with only the soothing glow of my phone’s screen lighting the room, I’ll likely succumb to my usual addiction and play a little on the 65-1 outright number, too.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

K.H. Lee (+230 for Top-40 Finish)

It’s long been noted that K.H. Lee has a tendency to play his best golf at TPC courses, a note which shouldn’t make any sense, since not all TPCs are built or set up in the same way. Who am I, though, to get in the way of a good narrative? Fresh off a T4 at PGA National in his most recent start, Lee’s best result at TPC Sawgrass is a mere T41, so we’ll be looking for him to finish one spot better this week.

2024 Players Championship DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Justin Thomas

If it wasn’t Will Zalatoris topping this preview, it might’ve been Justin Thomas – and the reason for choosing the former over the latter might only boil down to the fact that 25-1 is a better number than 20-1. All of which suggests that, yes, I do very much like a trending JT at the site of his victory three years ago.

There’s a different energy around him right now; even before he starts a round, he appears more determined than despondent. We can justify this by a swing which looks more confident, but it might simply be a byproduct of renouncing a diet that didn’t allow him to eat pizza when all he really wanted to do was eat pizza, essentially causing him to be miserable and hungry all the time.

Even at an elevated salary, I’d expect Scottie Scheffler to be a popular DFS selection this week. Thomas helps us perhaps get a little different from the masses, and I’ll have a few lineups starting with JT/Zalatoris to essentially stack the ball-strikers.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Tom Hoge

Quick question: Which player led the field in SG: Approach last week? If you answered Scottie Scheffler, you probably missed the name at the top of this section. OK, here’s another one: Which player leads the PGA Tour in SG: Approach this season? If you answered Scheffler again, you’re really not catching on.

The correct answer to each of those questions is Tom Hoge, who often stays hot with his iron play once he gets there.

I love him for top-10/20 props and head-to-head matchups with others in his 80-1 outright range, but I think he might own the best value as a DFS piece, especially in large tournament contests where some of the casuals might parachute in for a big event and overlook the analytics behind his performance so far.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Andrew Novak

Prior to the Cognizant Classic two weeks ago, I listed Andrew Novak in this same spot, though with a caveat, as I wasn’t quite sure how he’d back up a pair of top-10 finishes. As it turns out, pretty nicely. Novak posted yet another top-10 result at that one, and his ball-striking has been terrific this year.

This one almost feels so easy that I should add another caveat, since I’m worried about him keeping it going, but let’s continue to strike while his irons are hot.

More 2024 Players Championship Picks

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Russell Henley (+6000 for FRL)

Ten years ago, Russell Henley opened with a 65 at TPC Sawgrass and was second on the early leaderboard to only eventual champion Martin Kaymer. He’s yet to post a number that low again, but this course has proven to be a strong fit for Henley, who’s posted top-20 finishes in each of the past two years.

A very good ball-striker and streaky putter, he’s the type of player I like for single-round investments, when we can attempt to bank on his potential.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Sungjae Im (+5500)

There was an uncharacteristically ugly stretch for Sungjae Im after a tie for fifth at Kapalua to start the year. He followed with results of 25^th-MC-66^th-66^th-44^th-MC, but a T18 last week should provide some better mojo heading into this one.

This feels like a nice buy-low situation for a player with two top-20 finishes at TPC Sawgrass in the past three years, including a T6 last year. I’d play him in matchups against similarly priced players like Cameron Young, Jason Day and Si Woo Kim, hoping that he’s turned around whatever was bothering his game previously.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Shane Lowry (+3500), Sahith Theegala (+4500), Harris English (+7500), Keith Mitchell (+9000), Eric Cole (+9000), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+10000), Stephan Jaeger (+11000), Akshay Bhatia (+20000), Carson Young (+30000), Ben Kohles (+35000), Ben Silverman (+40000), Robert MacIntyre (+40000), Matthew NeSmith (+80000)