USA and Denmark will meet in the preliminary round of 2026 Winter Olympics Saturday. Puck drop is set for 3:10 p.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on USA Network and streamed on Peacock.
USA is favored by 3.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-115o / -105u). USA is a -3500 favorite to win outright, while Denmark is +1500 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my USA vs Denmark predictions and Olympics picks.
USA vs. Denmark Odds, Pick
- USA vs. Denmark Spread: USA -3.5 (-170), Denmark +3.5 (+145)
- USA vs. Denmark Over/Under: 6.5 (-115o / -105u)
- USA vs. Denmark Moneyline: USA -3500, Denmark +1500
USA vs. Denmark Preview
USA
Head coach Mike Sullivan checked all the boxes in an emphatic 5-1 win over Latvia in the opener. Somehow through 20 minutes of play the game remained tied, with the U.S. hitting several posts and having two disallowed goals. Ultimately it didn't matter, as the team remained relentless before the dam finally burst midway through the second period.
USA held a 30 to 8 edge in scoring chances and probably could have won by more than four goals on average based on the gameplay. Latvia is currently priced at 500-1 to win the tournament and is expected to be highly uncompetitive, so the result of the game may not hold much merit.
However, one development that we have seen throughout the tournament which does hold weight for the U.S., is that due to the tighter neutral zone and frenetic pace, there have been a lot of neutral zone dump-ins and offense coming following botched retrievals.
Even compared to what Team Canada has to offer, the Americans project to have the best defensive core in the tournament, and it's a unit that does not really feature a weak link in terms of successfully fielding retrievals and making clean zone exits, as well as some of the very best in the league at doing so in Quinn Hughes and Zach Werenski.
Winning pucks down low following a strong forecheck is a simple and effective way to try and generate offense, and one way to help try to mitigate a disparity in offensive talent.
Teams such as Denmark will need to be very well thought out on where they place dump-ins and forecheckers in order to have much success versus the U.S., or it will be a lot of one-and-done and plays quickly heading the other way.
They may not have much choice but to try such plays as well, because the unit should be well adept at forcing plays with tight gaps in the neutral zone.
Up front the line of Jack Eichel, Brady Tkachuk and Matthew Tkachuk set the tone as expected for the Americans on Thursday.
Eichel led all American forwards in time on ice, while Matthew Tkachuk ranked second, and those marks seemed more than fair. Eichel led the offensive core in scoring chances created, with five scoring chance assists, and three chances of his own.
Further down the lineup card is where things get a little murkier for prop bettors, as likely usage becomes harder to gauge. We have seen many coaches offer the 13th forward, allowed in this tournament specifically, next to no minutes in this tournament.
Sullivan rotated Trocheck onto the bottom units somewhat regularly though, leading to a lot of elite skaters playing just over 11 minutes.
The fourth line of Brock Nelson, Jack Hughes and J.T Miller/Trocheck really stood out and was rewarded with some goals.
Perhaps no player made a bigger statement than (Jack) Hughes, as he had not been in good form recently while reportedly still dealing with a hand injury but was extremely threatening throughout his brief period of time on ice, rightfully earning two primary assists.
Hughes made a strong case that he deserves a bigger role, but he will likely need to follow it up in each of the next two games to fully sell Sullivan, as most of the American forwards fared well in the soft matchup.
As expected, the American power play also looked quite strong, recording two goals in the game. Tage Thompson scored a beauty down at the goal mouth, while Auston Matthews added one right out front in the third.
At the time of writing, the team has not confirmed who will start in goal, but it seems reasonable to expect Jeremy Swayman may get a chance to rotate in and then likely play Connor Hellebuyck the rest of the way, including versus Germany in what is on paper USA’s toughest group stage matchup.
Swayman has had a fantastic season with the Boston Bruins, and is a major reason for their overachievement this season. He holds a +16.2 GSAx rating and .903 save percentage across 38 games played.
Denmark
Denmark responded relatively well after allowing Leon Draisaitl to score 23 seconds into its opener, as it scratched out a goal to head out of the first tied at one.
Ultimately Denmark lost 3-1, but did outshoot Germany 38 to 26, though score effects played a role in that number. Scoring chances were much more even than the shots were, as Germany held a 23 to 21 edge in scoring chances.
A fair summary of the game, based on pre-tournament expectations and betting odds, is that it went roughly as expected.
The team's two most talented offensive skaters from the NHL, Nikolaj Ehlers and Oliver Bjorkstrand, had some good moments, while european league skaters such as Alexander True and Oscar Fisker Molgaard also had some good moments.
Denmark's blue line features zero NHL skaters, and the depth did look to be an issue in matchups versus Germany's top talents.
We've seen non-NHL blue-liners such as Michal Kempny and Andrea Glauser prove that being outside the NHL does not guarantee a player will be ineffective thus far in this tournament, but it is a big ask for Denmark's unit to hang in throughout this matchup.
Frederik Andersen will need to be razor-sharp in this matchup for his team to have any success, after a fairly modest start to the tournament. Andersen holds a -7.0 GSAx rating and a .871 save percentage across 22 starts with the Hurricanes this season.
USA vs. Denmark Prediction
At the time of writing, the USA is priced at -170 to cover -3.5, which seems fair to me, and not worth betting one way or the other.
Underdogs have hung around quite respectably in this tournament, and it's not necessarily too much of a diss on the Americans to think laying -170 to cover 3.5 versus a side that looked competent in the opener doesn't hold much value.
Not all sportsbooks have populated their player props yet at the time of writing, but I will be keeping an eye out for the best available number for Eichel to record two points and will play it if it's longer than +125.
There is one market involving Eichel which still looks to hold value to me, and it's backing him to win tournament MVP at +2000 a bet some followers may have seen that I posted at +3400 prior to the tournament.
Eichel is a gamer who excels in all areas of the ice, and it seems that more and more the hockey world is coming around on how impactful he is in all facets of the game.
He got off to a strong start in the opener in terms of counting stats with two assists and should be able to rack up points in the next two matchups before the knockout stage, where he will need to shine.
Based on what we have seen so far, most notably that Sweden looks disappointing, it seems likely that the Gold Medal game will be as expected, Canada vs. the USA, and the U.S. will undoubtedly be in with a legitimate shot. It is concerning that Connor McDavid could win MVP even if Canada loses, but +2000 seems long enough to live with that concern.
I'm also liking a price of +125 for Jack Hughes to record an assist. Hughes's usage is a concern given that it's hard to imagine he will receive much more than the 11:14 he skated in the opener, but he was fantastic in that game and showed strong chemistry with Brock Nelson.
Hughes's five scoring chance assists in the opener ranked tied with Eichel for the team lead, and +125 is obviously a way longer price than we would ever see for Hughes to get an assist in the NHL.
Obviously much of that has to do with his role, but he'll also skate in much softer matchups in this game than he'd ever face in the NHL, while the USA also has a higher implied team total than the Devils ever would.
It wouldn't surprise me if Hughes gets a few more minutes based on his performance in the opener, and with that in mind a price of +125 looks appealing for him to get an assist in this matchup.
Pick: Jack Hughes 1+ Assist +125 (bet365; Play to +120) // Jack Eichel Tournament MVP +2000 (FanDuel; Play to +1800)
