The Kansas Jayhawks take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Ames, Iowa, on Saturday, Feb. 14. Tip-off is set for 1 p.m. ET on ABC.
Iowa State is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -320. Kansas, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +260 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 143.5 total points.
Here are my Kansas vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, February 14.
Kansas vs Iowa State Prediction
My Pick: Under 143.5
My Kansas vs Iowa State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kansas vs. Iowa State Odds
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | -320 |
- Kansas vs Iowa State Spread: Iowa State -6.5
- Kansas vs Iowa State Over/Under: 143.5 points
- Kansas vs Iowa State Moneyline: Kansas +260, Iowa State -320
Kansas vs Iowa State College Basketball Betting Preview
Kansas Basketball
Kansas already took care of Iowa State once this season, but it was a home game for the Jayhawks. Most teams are better at home, and Kansas, especially, has the best home-court advantage in the country.
So, it’ll need all hands on deck to beat a hungry Iowa State squad in Ames.
The Jayhawks should have freshman phenom Darryn Peterson back for this one. They’re undeniably a different team offensively with him in the lineup. You just never know if he’ll cramp up and leave 15-20 minutes in.
He missed the game against Arizona with the flu, but Kansas is still good enough to win without him if need be.
Kansas ranks just 40th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. It’s been a bit better since Jan. 1, ranking 29th in Bart Torvik’s offensive efficiency. That more lines up with Peterson returning from his absence.
Nothing about the Jayhawks' offensive attack is jaw-dropping. They shoot 35% from deep (89th) and 54% from 2 (86th).
The main difference is having a transcendent talent in Peterson and a dominant big man in Flory Bidunga. If Tre White and Melvin Council Jr. pick up the rest of the pieces, Kansas can be very dangerous.
The Jayhawks are one of the elite defensive teams in the country, ranking ninth in defensive efficiency. They have elite positional size, which limits opponents to 44% shooting from 2-point range.
They force turnovers only 13% of the time, but that’s by design — their goal is to force tough shots late in the shot clock.
Iowa State Basketball
Iowa State most recently took a tough road loss to TCU, where it scored just 55 points after scoring only 72 against Baylor.
The Cyclones can be a bit shaky if forced to play in the half-court. While they shoot over 40% from deep, that number is largely boosted by Milan Momcilovic and his 52% mark.
Three of the five starters are poor shooters — Tamin Lipsey shoots 27%, and Killyan Toure comes in at 32% — and big man Blake Buchanan is a non-shooter.
It’s a different story when Iowa State can get out and push in transition. Lipsey is a very physical guard who shoots 48% from the field. Toure is a defensive menace who’s a bit raw offensively, but he’s another drive-first guard.
Joshua Jefferson is the most valuable player for the Cyclones. He’s a do-everything forward who will look to school the young Bryson Tiller. KenPom lists Jefferson as the second-best player in America behind Duke’s Cam Boozer.
Just looking at the Clones’ pace gives a great idea of their DNA.
On defense, they drain over 18 seconds off the clock each possession. On offense, Iowa State barely gets into the 16-second range on average, showcasing that it wants to play in transition.
ISU can usually successfully get out in transition because it forces the opposition to turn it over 22% of the time (eighth-best). Plus, it limits opponents to 49% shooting from 2-point range and 31% from deep.
Kansas vs Iowa State Pick, Betting Analysis
In the first meeting, Kansas was the aggressor. It led by 26 in the first half and went 12-of-24 from deep, and the home crowd was very engaged.
I expect a more methodical approach on both ends here. Kansas won’t be able to push it the way it did in Lawrence. On the flip side, Kansas’ 15% turnover rate should lead Iowa State to play more possessions out instead of forcing turnovers.
To me, this reads as an under. The Cyclones are well-equipped to play a game in the 60s if their shots don’t fall, and Kansas has the defense to keep the game very low scoring.
My Pick: Under 142.5
