Red Sox vs Nationals Odds: Moneyline, Over/Under, Props - July 4, 2025

Red Sox at Nationals

3:05 pm • NESN

Boston Red Sox

0-2

11 - 2

Washington Nationals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Soroka			1.08	0-0
L.Giolito			3.41	10-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-2	-1.5	-1.5+139	o8-112	-115
Nationals 0-0	u8.5	+1.5-171	u8-108	-105

Friday 3:05 p.m.

July 04, 2025

Nationals ParkWashington

BOS -111

0.9u

Under 4.5 (F5)-130

0.5u

Feels weird to back Lucas Giolito and Mike Soroka, but that's what I'm doing on this July 4th. Soroka has a 4.70 ERA but a 3.05 xERA, and has found a way to cut his walk rate in half from last year (12.7% to 6.2%). He's simply been better this season than his surface stats. On the other side we get Lucas Giolito who has struggled over the entirety of this season. His xERA (4.97) is actually higher than his ERA (3.99). He's also seen a big decline in his strikeout rate (20.7%, down four points than his career average). The Nationals offense has been surging lately so this isn't a cakewalk matchup, but he's coming off an outing where he threw seven scoreless innings and Alex Cora said he's made some adjustments during a recent bullpen session. They appear to be working as he's only allowed four earned runs over his last four starts, spanning 25 innings. I'm going to be sweating those James Wood at-bats, but I have this projected closer to 4 runs in the F5.

L.Giolito o2.5 Earned Runs+115

Over 8.5+125

0.63u

Over 8.5-105

0.95u

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Over 8.5+106

1.06u

Under 4.5 (F5)-120

0.6u

WSH -105

Over 8.5-115

0.87u

WSH -102

Over 8.5-104

0.5u

Bet to -118

Under 4.5 (F5)-118

1.18u

Sunrise Slow Starts F5 Overall: 25-14-4,64% (ROI:21%) Season:1-1-0,50% (ROI:-2%)

BOS -115

Fresh Legs, Fat W’s Overall: 281-195-0,59% (ROI:13%) Season:6-6-0,50% (ROI:2%)

BOS -1.5+146

1.46u

Red Sox vs. Nationals: An Independence Day Matinee
Mike Ianniello•
Jul 4, 2025 UTC

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MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 49-32 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 47 of Nationals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	87-75	38-43	49-32	19-20	68-55
Red Sox	76-85	35-45	41-40	48-64	27-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	85-70-7	47-31-3	38-39-4	22-16-1	63-54-6
Red Sox	71-86-4	35-42-3	36-44-1	51-58-3	20-27-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	77-85	39-42	38-43	24-15	53-70
Red Sox	87-75	41-39	46-35	61-51	25-23

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 3rd	DET	W 11-7	+1.5 W	O 10	WSH +116
Jul 2nd	DET	W 9-4	+1.5 W	O 8	WSH -110
Jul 2nd	DET	L 2-11	+1.5 L	O 9	DET +130
Jun 29th	@LAA	W 7-4	+1.5 W	O 10	WSH +110
Jun 29th	@LAA	L 2-8	-1.5 L	O 9	LAA +100

Tanner Houck
P
Houck is out with arm
Out
Triston Casas
IF
Casas is out with knee
Out
Kutter Crawford
P
Crawford is out with wrist
Out

Josiah Gray
P
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Giolito, P	108	7.2	7	1
LJ.Wilson, P	4	0.1	0	0
RG.Whitlock, P	17	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, LF	2-5	1	0	3
1N.Eaton, LF	0-1	0	0	0
2R.Anthony, DH	2-3	1	0	0
3A.Toro, 1B	2-5	1	0	1
4C.Narvaez, C	2-6	1	0	0
5W.Abreu, RF	0-4	2	0	1
6T.Story, SS	4-5	3	1	4
7M.Mayer, 3B	2-5	1	0	1
8C.Rafaela, CF	1-5	1	0	1
9D.Hamilton, 2B	1-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Soroka, P	93	4	6	7
RZ.Brzykcy, P	29	1	2	2
LA.Chafin, P	13	1	0	0
RR.Loutos, P	33	2	1	2
RE.Salazar, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1C.Abrams, SS	1-3	1	0
2J.Wood, LF	0-2	0	0
2A.Call, LF	0-1	0	0
3L.Garcia, 2B	0-3	0	1
4N.Lowe, 1B	1-3	0	0
5J.Bell, DH	1-4	0	0
6B.House, 3B	0-4	1	0
7D.Lile, RF	1-4	0	1
8K.Ruiz, C	1-4	0	0
9J.Young, CF	1-3	0	0