Angels vs Orioles Odds, Pick | MLB Prediction Today (May 15)
Photo by Adam Glanzman/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani.
- The Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles open a four-game series on Monday night at Camden Yards.
- Two-way star Shohei Ohtani goes up against touted rookie right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.
- Kenny Ducey previews Angels vs. Orioles and breaks down whether you should back Ohtani.
Angels vs. Orioles Odds
-105 / -115
-105 / -115
A potential All-Star pitching matchup will take place on Monday night when Shohei Ohtani squares off against one of baseball’s top prospects, Grayson Rodriguez, in Baltimore. With how hot the Orioles are running, is there value on the home underdog?
Let’s break it all down in our Angels vs. Orioles preview and prediction.
It really couldn’t be going any worse for the Angels. Sure, they currently roster two of the greatest baseball players of this generation — and both are healthy. Outside of that, though, this team is pretty miserable. They’ve now dropped six of eight and have lost three straight series to the Rangers, Astros and Guardians and have been begging for someone to step up and help the top-end talent in the lineup.
Anthony Rendon is hitting .301, but around that Taylor Ward has started slow, Brandon Drury has been searching for answers at the plate and Luis Rengifo is yet to replicate his magical second half of 2022.
It’s gotten so bad that the team’s recalled Mickey Moniak from Triple-A in the hopes that he can give this team a boost.
The Angels own a lowly 88 wRC+ in the last week of play, which is going to put the onus on Ohtani to spin a gem here against Baltimore. That shouldn’t be an issue considering he’s coming in here with a 2.74 ERA, backed by an excellent .155 expected batting average and .261 xSLG.
He’s walked 11% of the batters he’s faced, but that’s really nothing new with Ohtani considering his 8.6% career mark. He’s even brought his ground ball rate up to 47.7% this season which would represent a career best.
He’s had a few rough starts in a row, but his strikeout numbers remain strong and it’s been a few isolated home runs that have really done him in.
It’s been an interesting 2023 season for Grayson Rodriguez, the No. 6 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com. He’s had three very bad outings against the Athletics, White Sox and Royals and has looked like a big-league arm against the likes of the Rangers and Rays.
It’s hard to get a feel for Rodriguez at the moment, but one thing we can say for sure is that he’s got to stop giving up home runs. He’s now allowed five in his last two starts and seven on the year, posting a 9.7% barrel rate and 51.6% hard-hit rate.
The hard-hit balls are of particular concern here given Rodriguez has never been a groundball pitcher. He’s come in at just 41.9% this season after inducing ground balls at a 41.3% rate in Triple-A last year and 37.1% at Double-A the year before that. He’s managed to rescue himself with strikeouts, and has done so at times this season by retiring 27.7% of the batters he’s faced via the punchout.
While the Orioles have been running hot, it’s been no thanks to their offense. Baltimore is now 4-1 in its last five games but owns just an 85 wRC+ in the last week of play, hitting .219. The Orioles rank 19th in ISO over that stretch and their .266 BABIP would suggest it’s not as if the ball simply isn’t bouncing their way.
Angels vs. Orioles Betting Pick
The Angels have been exactly in the middle of the league when it comes to putting the ball on the ground this year, but in the last week of play they own the fourth-lowest groundball rate at 38.2%. Considering Rodriguez’s low groundball rate and unsightly hard-hit rate, this could be an issue. L.A. has plenty of power bats and ranks 11th this season in home run-to-fly ball ratio.
Baltimore has been pretty flat at the plate in the last week, so the chances its offense is able to touch up Ohtani here are pretty low. The Orioles’ ability to work walks is their lone hope, and even then Ohtani has seemed to get his walk issues under control in recent starts even if it’s meant he’s looked human by allowing some home runs.
The Orioles’ lack of any power should help Ohtani rescue himself from a very miniature stumble, and on the other end I think Rodriguez has some issues to iron out before he’s a trustworthy arm. He’s going to need to miss more bats if he’s going to give up this many line drives and fly balls.
I think the Angels are an excellent value in Baltimore on Monday.
Pick: Angels -130
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