The San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday, July 6. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SDPA and MLB.TV.
The Padres enter as -124 favorites on the moneyline but are +1.5 (-210) on the run line. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are +106 on the moneyline and -1.5 (+172) on the run line. The over/under sits at 8.5 total runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Padres Pick: Diamondbacks ML +110 (Play to -105)
My Diamondbacks vs Padres best bet is on Arizona to win the game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | +106 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -124 |
- Diamondbacks vs Padres Moneyline: Padres -124, Diamondbacks +106,
- Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under: 8.5 (-106o / -114u)
- Diamondbacks vs Padres Run Line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+172), Padres +1.5 (-210)
Diamondbacks vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
Brandon Pfaadt made his return to the Diamondbacks' rotation last week, pitching brilliantly over 5 1/3 scoreless innings against the San Francisco Giants.
He allowed just four baserunners, one via the walk. While he struck out only two, he produced a .189 Expected Batting Average.
Now, we should say that the Giants are one of the very worst teams against ground-ball pitchers like Pfaadt — who sits in the top 20% of the league in that category — so take that with a grain of salt.
On top of that, the Giants don't walk much, so it's hard to say he has made a noticeable improvement there, especially after just one start.
With that said, out of the bullpen, Pfaadt had allowed just two walks in his last 5 1/3 innings prior to his start, so perhaps things are trending in the right direction.
He will have his work cut out for him on Wednesday, however, with the Padres walking 11.3% of the time over the last two weeks — the highest mark in the league.
The Diamondbacks offense, meanwhile, has been asleep at the wheel. They're averaging under four runs per game across their last four, and for the last two weeks, they own an 81 wRC+, which ranks 23rd in MLB.
Arizona continues to make contact at a high rate, but it has hit just .223 over that span with no supporting power.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The Padres are in an interesting spot. They just snapped an eight-game skid with a win over the Dodgers on Sunday, but the victory had been coming.
They were outscored by just one run in the last three games of that series, and aside from a 23-3 loss to the Cubs early in the week, had played their opponents quite closely.
San Diego has the ninth-best offense over the last two weeks in terms of wRC+, walking a ton and hitting .250 with a solid .173 Isolated Power.
It's been the pitching that has let the Padres down, and now they'll be hoping for a quick turnaround from Walker Buehler.
The veteran had finally lowered his ERA under four runs, only to give up nine against the Cubs last week, working a 6:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio with three home runs against him.
The home runs were a particularly big deal considering he'd allowed just six all year entering that start and two in his previous seven. With a high 47.1% ground-ball rate, I think we can reasonably expect that to be an outlier in his season.
What's become clear, however, is that Buehler is back to hunting strikeouts. He's up to a 21.7% strikeout rate, which beats out his mark from last season by 5.4 points. He has also steadied himself with an 8.5% walk rate.
Other than that, he's just running expected stats that are slightly worse than average; there's nothing crazy good or crazy bad about him — other than the fact that he's never proven to be a reliable starter since his career-altering injuries.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
Going on the prowl for strikeouts isn't necessarily going to work against the Diamondbacks, who are just about as stingy as they come in the whiff department.
One thing that's also not going to work against this team is keeping the ball low in the zone. Arizona ranks 18th in OPS to ground-ballers and a poor 27th in the reverse split.
It enters with plenty of hope, though, considering how many hits Buehler has been giving up in spite of his neat ERA last month.
On the other side of the coin, the Padres rank dead last in the league with a .599 OPS against ground-ballers and are 17th against fly-ball arms.
Pfaadt is coming off a great start against a very similar Giants team, and one that had been running a pretty hot offense coming into that one, too.
I think there's more than enough reason here to roll the dice on Pfaadt in another tasty matchup against a team that hates to see a ground-ball man coming.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML +110 (Play to -105)
