The San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 10, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Diamondbacks vs Padres pick and prediction with odds below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Padres picks: Diamondbacks ML (-125) | Play to -135
My Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction is Diamondbacks ML (-125). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -125 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +105 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) | Stat | RHP Randy Vasquez (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 5.78/4.11 | ERA /xERA | 3.79/5.78 |
| 4.29/3.83 | FIP / xFIP | 5.32/5.80 |
| 1.62 | WHIP | 1.44 |
| 16.9% | K-BB% | 6.8% |
| 37% | GB% | 38.6% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 99 | Location+ | 99 |
Kenny Ducey’s Diamondbacks vs Padres Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Rodriguez Getting Hurt By Power
Eduardo Rodriguez has now thrown 76 1/3 innings after making his debut in-season due to injury, and what we've seen has more or less been in line with what we know him to be. The lefty has run a 24.6% strikeout rate to this point — a pretty solid mark relative to the past few seasons — and his Expected Batting Average sits just above the league average.
Where the left-hander is getting burned is in the power department, where his Expected Slugging has remained a brutal 44 points higher than average. That'll happen when your ground-ball rate continues to drop, though with Arizona's large home park and its excellent outfield defense, it's likely a shift in strategy given he joined the Diamondbacks prior to the 2024 season.
The home runs have really hurt Rodriguez, even at home. He surrendered three longballs to the lowly Kansas City Royals at Chase Field last week, and strangely enough, he's now given up eight in seven starts in Arizona compared to six on the road.
The good news is that Rodriguez is coming off his best month of the year, during which he posted a .200 xBA and a .315 xSLG, which came in well under his actual results. He also managed to lower his roughly average walk rate down near 5%, and is coming off a start where he didn't walk a single batter. That's just about the only nice thing we can say regarding that outing against the Royals.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Vasquez Pitching in the Perfect Park
On the other side of this one, Randy Vasquez continues to be an anomaly. He's not even pitching to an extreme number of fly balls, but he's clearly enjoying the spacious nature of PETCO Park with a 3.12 home ERA, which beats out the reverse split by nearly a run and a half.
The right-hander, like his counterpart here, did show some improvements last month — but that was only relative to his season-long numbers. Vasquez's xSLG still came in at a ridiculous .496 in June next to a .271 xBA — so for him, it's been more of an issue of catastrophic contact as opposed to a consistent flow of hits.
Hurting his case has been a brutal 10.7% walk rate, which has put him under unnecessary stress, and his strikeout rate remains a minuscule 12.5%. It's been very hard for the right-hander to avoid traffic on the basepaths, and it's not even like he's pitched well in these scenarios with opponents running a .747 OPS against him with runners on base.
He'll be looking to the heavens here, praying the power-hitting Diamondbacks fall victim to a park which is nearly as tough on home-run hitters as their own.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Pick
The Diamondbacks entered Wednesday's game with some respectable power numbers, and San Diego's home park didn't exactly hold them at bay. They managed to homer four times in the game — three times off starter Dylan Cease — as they walked five times and struck out in 12 plate appearances.
Now, they'll look to pick on Vasquez and his unsightly numbers. Arizona is sporting an elite .207 Isolated Power in the last two weeks after its outburst on Wednesday. While it's struck out in 24.3% of plate appearances, it won't have to worry much about Vasquez missing bats.
It should have a decent chance of compounding some of the loud contact off the righty with a solid 9.3% walk rate in the split, and with a 17.2% home run-to-fly ball ratio, which is second in the league over the last two weeks, that should prove deadly.
I said I liked Arizona on Wednesday, but decided to take the Under and trust Dylan Cease against my better judgment. There's no reason to trust Vasquez here, however, and with San Diego slumping and facing a left-hander — an arduous matchup given the platoon splits and Rodriguez's ability to generate fly balls — the Diamondbacks are an easy call.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-125)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Betting Trends
