Tuesday Sharp Report: Pro Players Hitting Three Unders
Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Wiseguys cashed their Yankees-Astros contrarian Under yesterday, but suffered three tough-luck moneyline losses (Pirates, Reds and Twins) by a combined four runs. As always, sharps are sticking to the flat-betting approach. No chasing. No doubling down. Stay the course and keep grinding.
After analyzing Tuesday’s stacked 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:10, 8:10 and 10:10 p.m. ET.
All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay Rays – Detroit Tigers Under 8.5
7:10 p.m. ET
We’re seeing a massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy with this total. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Over, but 61% of dollars are on the Under. This smart Under money has caused reverse line movement on the juice. It opened with liability on the Over (-120) and has now shifted to show liability on the Under (-115). The total even dipped down to 8 briefly this morning before being bought back to 8.5. Wiseguys and Pinnacle triggered a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the Under 8.5, resulting in a market-wide line freeze despite heavy Over betting.
Toronto Blue Jays – Minnesota Twins Under 9
8:10 p.m. ET
Oddsmakers opened this total at 9.5 with juice on the Over (-115), meaning the number was leaning toward 10. Despite the high total, 61% of bets are going Over, yet the total has fallen from 9.5 to 9. This sharp reverse line movement was caused by heavy wiseguy Under betting across the market. Even though the total fell from 9.5 to 9, the pro players at Pinnacle kept hitting it, indicating supreme confidence in a low-scoring game.
Baltimore Orioles – Los Angeles Angels Under 8.5
10:10 p.m. ET
Alex Cobb (13.11 ERA) against Nick Tropeano (4.67 ERA). Over all day, right? In the most lopsided total play of the day, 91% of bets are going Over, yet the total has fallen from 9 to 8.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the total to give public Over bettors an easier cover? Because they took a wave of wiseguy money on the Under. Sharps at Pinnacle and CRIS both hit Under 9. This is especially meaningful because Pinnacle and CRIS are two of the sharpest offshore books. The Under is getting only 9% bets but 18% dollars, another sign that smart money is betting against a high-scoring game.
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Pictured: Los Angeles Angels third baseman Zack Cozart (7) celebrates with center fielder Mike Trout (27) after hitting a solo home run