Read below for our 4 MLB Best Bets Today for Saturday, September 19, including picks for Brewers vs Orioles (4:05 PM ET), Phillies vs Mets (4:10 PM ET), Mariners vs Rockies (8:10 PM ET), and Twins vs Angels (9:38 PM ET).
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:05 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Matt Trollo's Brewers vs Orioles Prop Pick
By Matt Trollo
Robert Gasser has pitched to a 2.23 ERA over his last 19.1 innings, but that’s mostly because just one of his five barrels has left the yard during that time.
His 14.5 K-BB% is right on his season rate (14.6%), but he has only allowed 15 hard-hit batted balls (25.9%), still producing an xERA (3.98) and xFIP (4.06), much higher than his 3.10 FIP.
On the season, Gasser’s 4.30 ERA meshes pretty well with indicators ranging from a 4.12 SIERA to a 4.64 dERA. His 3.67 Bot ERA is an outlier, but a 97 Pitching+ is not. He also exceeds a 40-point wOBA and xwOBA split, favoring RHBs.
The good news for Gasser is that it’s a navigable matchup, one even offering plenty of strikeout upside. Pete Alonso (114 wRC+), Coby Mayo (208) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (201) are the only three projected Orioles above a 97 wRC+ vs LHP this season. Take away Gunnar Henderson too and nobody else exceeds a 71 wRC+ or .123 ISO against southpaws.
This projected lineup also averages a 31.6 K% vs LHP and 84 wRC+ at home.
They have been hot lately though, with four batters exceeding a 140 wRC+ over the last month overall.
Gasser has struck out LHBs 25.8% of the time and RHBs 20.8% of the time. I’m projecting him to face 21 batters with only Henderson from the left-hand side, but the first 21 in the projected Baltimore order average an even higher strikeout rate against lefties (32.1%).
Pick: Robert Gasser Over 5.5 Strikeouts
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Derek Carty's Phillies vs Mets Best Bet
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on Brandon Marsh's walks prop.
THE BAT X is projecting him to record 0.39 walks, and oddsmakers are implying 0.28. The model believes there is a 33% chance he records at least one walk, so there is value on the over at +300.
This play is good down to at least +230.
Pick: Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 Hitter Walks
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Tony Sartori's Mariners vs Rockies Best Bet
By Tony Sartori
Left-hander Jose Quintana takes the mound for the Colorado Rockies, and he should serve as a good fade candidate. Through nine starts this year, Quintana is 2-3 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor. If he qualified, Quintana would rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
If anyone on the Seattle Mariners is to take advantage of this matchup, it is likely to be Randy Arozarena. He has been fantastic this year, posting a .281 batting average, .480 slugging percentage and .858 OPS.
In eight plate appearances against Quintana, Arozarena possesses a .400 slugging percentage and .414 xwOBA.
Pick: Randy Arozarena 2+ Hits+Runs+RBI
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Matt Trollo's Twins vs Angels Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Angel Stadium typically plays slightly pitcher-friendly, but warmer weather and umpire Erich Bacchus create a modest boost, pointing to a neutral-to-slightly elevated scoring environment. Overall, aside from Joe Ryan’s post-injury slump, Minnesota’s weak infield defense, and recent bullpen bad luck, the factors lean toward a lower-scoring game.
Joe Ryan has struggled mightily since the All-Star break and a stint on the IL, surrendering 22 earned runs and 10 homers across just 23.1 innings. While his strikeout rate has dropped to 15.3%, his elite 3.5% walk rate and underlying estimators (5.83 xERA) suggest he’s been more unlucky than his inflated 8.49 ERA indicates. Fortunately, he gets an ideal bounce-back matchup against an Angels lineup completely missing power and production at home and against righties.
Minnesota’s defense (-17 FRV) offers little support on the infield, but their outfield coverage suits Ryan’s fly-ball style well. Behind him, the Twins' bullpen remains competent; despite a bloated 5.81 recent ERA driven by bad luck (.348 BABIP), their underlying metrics rank in the top half of the league.
On the other side, Reid Detmers is on a dominant run, riding seven consecutive quality starts with just six total runs allowed. Supported by a elite 25.1 K-BB% and low hard-contact rates, his full-season numbers mirror a strong mid-3s ERA.
He faces a slumping Twins offense that struggles against southpaws—especially without Byron Buxton—and makes plenty of contact without hitting the ball hard. The Angels' defense projects as neutral, while their bullpen presents a similar story to Minnesota’s: despite ranking lower overall, their recent underlying metrics are among the league’s best, with horrific luck (.362 BABIP) masking their true performance.
Pick: Under 7.5
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