Thursday’s MLB Over/Under: Sizing Up Another Lucas Giolito Total
The unbeaten streak has now reached eight (7-0-1) after yesterday’s Mariners-Royals Under 9 bet came through, with James Paxton delivering his most impressive outing on the young season to lead the way. Let’s see if another total involving Lucas Giolito will once again do the trick and extend the streak one more.
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 10-1-1, +8.8 units
Yesterday’s Result: Paxton vs. Duffy Under 9 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins | O/U: 9
8:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Lucas Giolito (0-1, 6.17 ERA) vs. Jose Berrios (1-1, 3.29 ERA)
In both of Giolito’s first two starts, we nailed the under, although you wouldn’t think it by taking a quick glance at his numbers. The former Nationals first-round draft choice is 0-1 thus far with an unpleasant 6.17 ERA, to go with seven walks compared to only five strikeouts in his 11.2 innings. He’s also hit four batters already, all of whom have come around to score.
But Giolito has been better than those stats may indicate, and there’s only potential for him to get stronger from here on out as the right-hander gets more comfortable in his first April in the big leagues. He’s held opponents to a .195 batting average, with no home runs allowed, meaning once he’s able to trust and locate his exceptional stuff more, he’ll be able to go deeper into ballgames more consistently.
The 23-year-old was having issues with control his last time out, but that can be understandable given the frigid temperatures he was dealing with this past Saturday. Giolito in his usual rhythm, which I believe he’ll come closest to in his third start of 2018, can be very beneficial in any under, especially one emanating from a pitcher’s park like Target Field.
Jose Berrios certainly likes working at this ballpark. In his first full season with the Twins a year ago, the Puerto Rican native was 9-1 in 10 home starts (and one relief appearance) with a 2.41 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and .199 batting average against, while also striking out more than one batter per inning in the process.
Additionally, he also likes facing tonight’s opponent, as is evident from the 2.13 ERA and 0.95 WHIP he’s posted in four career starts against the White Sox. Not only that, Chicago has mustered just a .167 average with this right-hander on the hill.
Of note, Jose Abreu, Matt Davidson, Nick Delmonico, Yolmer Sanchez and Tim Anderson are a combined 3-for-37 (.081) against Berrios. That’s significant because those are the club’s No. 3-7 hitters in the lineup for tonight’s series opener.
Berrios has, for the most part, looked really good through his first two assignments in 2018. Of course, he recorded a shutout in his first start against the Orioles, and while he failed to get out of the fifth inning in his most recent outing against the Mariners, he did retire the first 10 hitters before running into trouble. Considering his career stats against the South Siders, there’s a good chance Berrios comes through for those on the under.
With the line inflating up to 9, we have a little bit of room for error, so long as one of these two righties registers an overpowering performance. Given the skill set of both youngsters, that is more than possible. Overall, it just looks like there will be some solid pitching on display in Minnesota to kick off this series between AL Central rivals.
Play: UNDER 9 (-110)