Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, March 30.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Pirates-Reds, Athletics-Braves, and Tigers-Diamondbacks.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks for Opening Day — Monday, March 30
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Angels/Cubs, Under 9.5 (-120, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to 9 (-105)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-110, 1u), FanDuel, bet to -130
- Athletics F5 (+115, 0.5u), BetMGM, bet to -105
- Cincinnati Reds (-122, 1u), BetRivers, bet to -133
- Mets/Cardinals, Over 8.5 (-112, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 9 (-110)
- Rangers/Orioles, Over 9 (-110, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -120
- Rays/Brewers, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -115
- Twins/Royals, Over 9.5 (-103, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 10 (+100)
- Toronto Blue Jays F5 (-210, 0.33u), FanDuel, bet to -260
- Yankees/Mariners, Under 8 (-115, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 7.5 (+100)
Pirates vs. Reds Picks
We cashed a +120 underdog ticket on the Reds on Sunday afternoon, and will look to back them for the second consecutive day with the pitcher who projects as their most effective arm, Chase Burns (projected FIP range from 2.95 to 3.80).
Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft (3.45 xERA, 3.54 xFIP, 16.1% K-BB% in 2025) is a very underrated pitcher himself (projected FIP range 3.53 to 4.00), but Burns (3.46 xERA, 2.68 xFIP, 27.1% K-BB%) – the No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft – is on a different tier when he's at his best. Among starters who tossed 30+ innings last season, only Cole Ragans (38.1%) had a higher strikeout rate than Burns (37.7%).
Burns posted a 116 Stuff+ and 120 Pitching+ rating in his debut season, compared to marks of 105 and 104 (still excellent) for Ashcraft. As a result, Ashcraft is a bit more reliant upon his defense to make plays behind him, but the Reds grade as the far superior team both defensively and on the basepaths.
Per Defensive Runs Saved, the Reds haven't fielded an above-average defensive team since 2019, and then the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, but this is the most competent defensive group they have fielded in that time; their projected lineup ranks as my 11th-best defensive unit for Monday's slate. Conversely, the Pirates' lineup projects 28th defensively among the 30 teams (only the Angels and White Sox project worse).
Pittsburgh has the better offense (average 104 vs. 100 wRC+ vs. righties across their nine lineup spots) and the more well-rested bullpen, but I am still higher on Cincinnati than the overnight market.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds -122 (BetRivers)
Athletics vs. Braves Picks
Due to a drastic difference in bullpen quality, I project the Athletics as near -110 favorites for the first five innings, but make the Braves around the same price for the full game.
As a result, while there is value on the A's to win the game compared to overnight odds (best +120), there is a more significant edge on their odds to win the first five innings (F5), and you can either take their F5 moneyline to -105, or play their F5 spread (+0.5 runs) to -140. And if you're so inclined, I would lay their -0.5 runline at +150 or better.
After their series in Toronto, the Athletics bullpen – which already ranks near the bottom of the league projection-wise- is my worst projected bullpen on Monday's slate (even behind the Nationals and Rockies, and a trio of exhausted bullpens for the Angels, Astros, and Rangers).
I am much higher on Jacob Lopez (3.63 xERA, 4.13 xFIP, 19% K-BB%, 98 Stuff+, 100 Pitching+ in 2025; projected FIP range 4.05 to 4.57), who I think is underprojected, than I am on Bryce Elder (career 4.61 xERA, 4.23 xFIP, 10.6% K-BB%, 90 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+; projected FIP range 4.10 to 4.39), who I think is overprojected, given their respective performance and pitch modeling data.
The A's should get the better of the offensive splits during the first half of the game, too. The platoon lineups for both teams carry a projected average of a 115 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, compared to a 108 mark against lefties, giving Nick Kurtz (151), Tyler Soderstrom (124), Lawrence Butler (110), and Jeff McNeil (110) their better split (three project below average against lefties), while forcing Drake Baldwin (103 vs. 124), Matt Olson (110 vs. 136), and Michael Harris (119 vs. 94) into their lesser ones.
The Braves have a pair of left-handed relievers (Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer) to neutralize Kurtz and Co. late; the A's only lefty reliever is Hogan Harris, who has thrown the most pitches (36 on Friday and Saturday) among their high-leverage arms and carries below-average projections (4.51 weighted FIP).
It's A's first five or pass.
Pick: Athletics F5 +115 (BetMGM)
Tigers vs. Diamondbacks Picks
With the addition of star rookie Kevin McGonicle, the Tigers are becoming an increasing threat to win the AL Pennant. Still, I show a fairly sizable edge betting against them on Monday with the Diamondbacks.
Arizona had a rare Sunday off day, following their three-game sweep against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, where they blew multi-run leads in the final two games, allowing them to rest and reset their bullpen. While they reset at home, the Tigers took their first loss of the season in San Diego, using a couple of key relievers, before making the short trip to Phoenix.
Arizona has a clear starting pitching advantage, with a rarely healthy Michael Soroka (3.53 xERA, 4.21 xFIP, 17.4% K-BB% in 2025; projected FIP range 3.97 to 4.25) battling 43-year-old Justin Verlander (4.24 xERA, 4.57 xFIP, 12.8% K-BB% in 2025; projected FIP range 4.42 to 4.88), and the projected gap between them is wider for me is wider for me than it is between the top six relievers in either bullpen (3.85 to 4.10 weighted FIP favoring Detroit).
The offenses are also comparable; either team averages a 110 wRC+ against righties across their nine lineup spots, and Arizona has two top hitters by right-handed splits (139 for Corbin Carroll and 133 for Ketel Marte) in that group.
Moreover, they are the better team on the basepaths with a sizeable defensive edge; the Tigers are above-average defensively as a team, but they have a few soft spots, and two bad defenders (Kerry Carpenter and Gleyber Torres) in particular. Javier Baez is also well past his prime defensively as a 33-year-old shortstop; their best lineup probably has McGonigle at short and Zach McKinstry at third.
Conversely, the Diamondbacks have average to above-average fielders at every position, with Carrol and catcher Gabriel Moreno projecting among the best at their respective positions.
I show an edge on Arizona in both halves; you can bet their F5 moneyline (listed at -128) to -135, but their full-game price at -110 (bet to -133) offers more value.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks -110 (FanDuel)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, March 30
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Angels/Cubs, Under 9.5 (-120, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to 9 (-105)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (-110, 1u), FanDuel, bet to -130
- Athletics F5 (+115, 0.5u), BetMGM, bet to -105
- Cincinnati Reds (-122, 1u), BetRivers, bet to -133
- Mets/Cardinals, Over 8.5 (-112, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 9 (-110)
- Rangers/Orioles, Over 9 (-110, 0.5u), FanDuel, bet to -120
- Rays/Brewers, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to -115
- Twins/Royals, Over 9.5 (-103, 0.5u), BallyBet, bet to 10 (+100)
- Toronto Blue Jays F5 (-210, 0.33u), FanDuel, bet to -260
- Yankees/Mariners, Under 8 (-115, 0.5u), Caesars, bet to 7.5 (+100)
