Astros vs. Braves MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: The Side and Prop to Bet (Friday, August 19)

Astros vs. Braves Odds

The Houston Astros will travel to Atlanta for a highly anticipated weekend set, as we will see a rematch of last season's World Series with both powerhouse squads in the midst of some stellar play of late.

Lance McCullers will make his second start of the season for the Astros, and will look to build on a dominant first outing against the Oakland Athletics against a much more potent Braves offense.

 McCullers will be opposed by Kyle Wright for the Braves, who has been very strong with a 3.14 ERA and 14-5 record throughout the 2022 season. 

Will Houston be able to extract a small measure of revenge Friday with McCullers on the mound?

The Astros' Offense Remains Elite

Should McCullers be able to return to the lineup in close to top form it would go as a notable boost for the Astros, but not an entirely needed one for a squad which already is on top of the American League.

The early indications are McCullers looks good, as the 28 year old returned from a lengthy absence due to a forearm injury twirling six scoreless innings against Oakland, while allowing just two hits and two hard hit balls.

Offensively the Astros have remained in elite form of late, and have hit to a wRC+ rating of 121 over the last 30 days, striking out just 17.4% of the time with a wOBA of .334.

Houston has been the fourth-best team in the league versus right-handed pitching this season, with a 114 wRC+, and a massive part of it's success against right-handed pitching has been the play of Yordan Alvarez.

Alvarez has slugged .658 on the season against righties, with a ridiculous OPS of 1.074, and the underlying metrics suggest the 25 year old phenom is simply just that good.

Alvarez has been just as effective away from Minute Maid park, including an OBP of .423 on the road, which is the best mark in the MLB this season.

Houston has also hit to elite marks against each of the curveball, fastball, and changeup this season, which is another favorable note entering a matchup against Kyle Wright.

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Will Atlanta's Pitching Hold Up?

Kyle Wright's 14-5 record and 3.14 certainly seem to a paint a picture of dominance, however his underlying numbers do suggest some regression could be coming moving forward.

Wright's xERA of 4.07 is nearly a full run higher than his actual mark and his xwoba has continued to rise as the season has moved along. Wright has pitched to a post All-Star break ERA of 4.01, and has seen his WHIP rise to 1.22 during that time.

Wright has pitched to a notably high xwoba of .348 in previous matchups against members of the Astros current roster, albeit in a notably small 16 at-bat sample size.

Atlanta's roster has fared well historically against McCullers themselves, with a .299 xwOBA throughout a sample of 58 PA's heading into this matchup.

The Braves have hit to a -1.4 pitch value against the curveball however, which is certainly a concerning mark entering this matchup.

Astros-Braves Pick

McCullers appeared very true to form during his dominant season debut against Oakland, and with that in mind I feel we have the price to back an elite Houston offense in this spot down to +105.

Alvarez numbers against right-handed pitching this season have been truly remarkable, and even against a pitcher of the quality of Kyle Wright I feel this is a great price to back a prop which has been very profitable in 2022.

Especially as Wright has allowed a .680 SLG rate to left-handed batters throughout the month of August, and a 1.28 WHIP to lefties altogether this season.

Pick: Houston Astros +105 (Play to +105), Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Bases +110 (Play to +100)

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