Astros vs. White Sox Odds, Preview, Prediction: Chicago’s Season Hangs On The Left Shoulder Of Carlos Rodón (October 11)
Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Rodón
Editor's Note: Monday's Astros-White Sox game has been postponed because of inclement weather and will be made up on Tuesday at 2:07 p.m. ET.
Astros vs. White Sox Odds
| Astros Odds | +105 |
| White Sox Odds | -130 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-125 / +105) |
| Time | 3:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
Just when the Astros looked like a lock to advance to the ALCS, the White Sox rallied from a 5-1 deficit to keep their playoff hopes alive. I didn't see that one coming, nor did I see the Astros getting pounded for 12 runs in the ballgame.
All it takes is one game for the momentum to swing from one team to another. Chicago was buoyed by its capacity crowd of 40,000-plus fans who were unwilling to go quietly into the night.
That raucous atmosphere will likely return on Monday as Chicago tries to tie things up. This series just got a heck of a lot more interesting.
Let's see who has the edge in Game 4.
Urquidy Faces Tough Task For Astros
José Urquidy gets set to face the White Sox for just the second time in his career. In 20 starts this season, he went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His 4.14 FIP is almost a half-run higher than his ERA, which points to some regression. However, the advanced numbers will never favor Urquidy because he's not a big strikeout pitcher. The right-hander finished the season with a 7.57 K/9 ratio.
Urquidy is mainly a fly-ball pitcher, as evidenced by his 45.6% fly-ball rate. He's also allowing 1.43 home runs per nine innings which works against him from an analytics standpoint. Another concern I'd have with him is his 28.4% Called Plus Swinging Strike Rate isn't on par with an elite pitcher.
The second-year pitcher utilizes a four-pitch mix with a four-seamer (54.9%), slider (19.5%), changeup (18.2%) and a curveball (7.4%). At times, he's been too reliant on his four-seamer, given its high usage rate. Nine of the 17 home runs he's allowed have also been against the four-seamer.
It might make sense to increase the use of his slider and changeup as hitters have an expected .202 and .214 batting average against those pitches, respectively, with roughly a 33.7% whiff rate. His slider would also be helpful against a White Sox lineup rated -27 runs below average against the pitch.
The conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field could also come into play as the wind will be blowing in from the right-field with gusts up to 17 mph. That should be good news if you're a fly-ball pitcher like Urquidy.
Rodón Is Key For White Sox
As Chicago's chances of reaching the playoffs improved during the season, I'm not sure how many people had Carlos Rodón starting Game 4. That's not what you'd expect for someone who went 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP.
However, shoulder fatigue forced him to miss some starts down the stretch in September. That was enough to put Rodón's postseason status in jeopardy. Chicago even trotted him out in the final week to decide whether to include him on the ALDS roster.
Rodón pitched five shutout innings in the outing and only allowed one hit. While those numbers look good on paper, the shoulder injury might have led to a loss in velocity. In that start, Rodón's fastball averaged about 91 mph. He averaged around 95 mph during the season and even had some outings where he averaged over 97 mph with the heater.
White Sox manager Tony La Russa said Rodón wasn't at his best in his last start of the regular season and would be watched closely in the lead-up to Game 4.
He also said that Rodón was optimistic about taking the ball. The left-hander says he feels better and that the ball's been coming out of his hand better in his recent workouts.
If the White Sox get anything close to what they've gotten from Rodón all season, it could be a game-changer for them. Houston's lineup has 103 at-bats against him, but they've only managed a .184/.222/.252 line with just a .068 ISO.
Astros-White Sox Pick
There are certainly some unknowns coming into this game with the wind and Rodón's status. The crowd might end up being the most important thing for a White Sox team that led the American League with 53 wins at home. I think Chicago will play this game on adrenalin and emotion more than anything else.
My model makes the White Sox a -129 favorite which is right in line with the market. As for the Astros, I have them as a +117 underdog, but that price isn't available anywhere in the market.
Rodón has done well at home in his career against the Astros.
He's 3-1 for 2.46 units in this spot and 33-23 for 7.4 units overall in his career at home. I would lean to the home team in this spot, but Rodón's shoulder injury is enough to keep me from making this an official play.
Lean: White Sox ML (-130)
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