The New York Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles on May 2, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -154 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +130 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Orioles vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Yankees Prediction
- Orioles vs Yankees Pick: Yankees ML (play to -170)
My Orioles vs Yankees best bet is on New York to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -154 |
- Orioles vs Yankees moneyline: Orioles +130, Yankees -154
- Orioles vs Yankees over/under: 8.5 (-115 / -105)
- Orioles vs Yankees spread: Orioles +1.5 (-154), Yankees -1.5 (+128)
Orioles vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| RHP Kyle Bradish (BAL) | Stat | LHP Ryan Weathers (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 4.20 / 4.43 | ERA / xERA | 3.21 / 4.62 |
| 4.07 / 4.10 | FIP / xFIP | 3.40 / 2.87 |
| 10.3% | K-BB% | 23.4% |
| 48.8% | GB% | 40.9% |
| .376 | BABIP | .333 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 96 | Location+ | 115 |
Orioles vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Orioles vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
The Yankees are off to an incredible start to the season, checking into Sunday’s game with a 21-11 record.
Starting pitching has been brilliant for the Bronx Bombers — and Ryan Weathers is one of the key cogs. The southpaw is off to a blazing start in his first year in New York, posting a 3.21 ERA with a 4.62 xERA and a 3.40 FIP. The disparity in Weathers’ underlying numbers is interesting, but I think he’ll settle around the 3.30-3.50 ERA range.
Here are a few reasons to feel good about Weathers’ long-term — he’s striking out 10.69 batters per nine, while walking a career low 2.14 batters. Plus, his BABIP is .333, up from .275 last year and .276 in the prior seasons. Teams are getting on him more than they should.
New York has two of the four best hitters in the sport, per wRC+. Ben Rice is No. 2 with a 210 wRC+, only behind Yordan Alvarez from the Astros. Aaron Judge, who got off to a tough start, has a 173 wRC+, and his 12 homers are tied for the league lead.
That pair has done most of the heavy lifting for an offense that has the fifth-best wRC+ in MLB. The only other hitter with a wRC+ better than 110 is Amed Rosario, who's a part-time player hoping to garner more ABs versus righties.
Even with a mediocre supporting cast surrounding Rice and Judge, they still lead the league in homers and rank second in walk rate.
The Orioles look like a middle-of-the-pack team in the AL East. That isn't a huge surprise, as they failed to address the biggest issue — pitching.
Kyle Bradish was supposed to make a jump after a strong finish to his 2025 season. He's struggled thus far in 2026, owning a 4.20 ERA with a 4.43 xERA and a 4.07 FIP.
He just can't stay in the strike zone consistently, walking 5.10 batters per nine. Last year, Bradish walked 2.81, and the year prior was 3.53 in a similar sample size to this season. I struggle to envision Bradish walking this many hitters all year, but he's fade-worthy until he stops walking hitters.
Also, the prized Orioles pitching acquisition in the Winter was closer Ryan Helsley, but he just hit the injured list. Expect a mix of Yennier Cano and Rico Garcia to fill in for Helsley.
The Orioles' offense is one I'll buy into moving forward. They rank 10th in wRC+ this year, and that's with Pete Alonso having a 91 wRC+ and Gunner Henderson having a 110. If you had told me a month ago that Baltimore has a top-10 offense, I would have assumed Alonso and Henderson are playing close to their career numbers.
Instead, this is an elite offense with Alonso and Henderson playing below their standard. That's a result of guys like Adley Rutschman, Jeremiah Jackson, and Leody Tavares playing better than expected. Rutschman leads the team with a 196 wRC+ with four homers in 16 games. He can take this Baltimore team to another level.
I'm taking the Yankees ML here at -156 up to -170. Weathers is a more trustworthy arm than Bradish. Plus, Bradish facing a Yankees lineup that'll gladly let him walk them is a recipe for a short outing, which is something the Orioles can ill-afford after a doubleheader two days ago.
Pick: Yankees ML (play to -170)
